Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Independiente Santa Fe		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.9	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.3
	2.12	2.98	3.7	Watch
	2.15	3.04	4.06
	2.13	3.07	3.88	Watch
	2.05	2.8	3.8
	2.2	2.98	3.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.45)	3.01 ↑ (2.94)	3.75 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Santa Fe
43.9%

Draw
31.1%

Peñarol de Montevideo
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

31.9%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

33.2%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Santa Fe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente Santa Fe's performance.

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	38.9%	11.1%

Independiente Santa Fe - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Santa Fe will win (votes: 9 - 50%). Peñarol will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santa Fe: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Fe (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mosquera A. (G) 13. Palacios H. 18. Olivera E. 3. Moreno V. 32. Mafla C. 16. Torres D. 7. Torres J. 14. Palacios L. 20. Velasquez Y. 8. Fernandez O. 11. Rodallega H. (C)	1. Britos S. (G) 2. Escobar F. 3. Lemos M. 6. Ferreira L. 15. Olivera M. (C) 21. Jesus Trindade 5. Remedi E. 77. Angulo L. 10. Fernandez L. 8. Fernandez N. 19. Arezo M.
Substitutes
24. Angulo J. 12. Asprilla W. (G) 19. Bustos N. 9. Fagundez F. 2. Juan Quintero 17. Lovera M. 22. Mosquera E. 33. Nemocon C. (G) 77. Obrian J. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 6. Toscano Bassa K. D. 10. Zapata A.	18. Barbas G. 9. Batista F. 12. Da Costa P. (G) 13. Darias E. 31. Diaz L. (G) 80. Gonzalez F. 25. Gonzalez M. 26. Madruga A. 30. Muhlethaler S. 14. Rodriguez K. 23. Togni G. 32. Umpierrez L.
Coaches
Repetto P.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Velasquez Y. ↓, Lovera M. ↑,
20', 1 - 0, Olivera E. ⚽, Fernandez O. (A),
28', Moreno V. 🟨,
44', Lovera M. ↓, Zapata A. ↑,
45+5', Torres D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Mosquera A. ↓, Asprilla W. ↑,
46', Torres D. ↓, Toscano Bassa K. D. ↑,
51', Ferreira L. 🟨,
52', Palacios L. 🟨,
54', Torres J. 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Arezo M. ⚽,
62', Fernandez N. ↓, Darias E. ↑,
70', Angulo L. ↓, Togni G. ↑,
70', Arezo M. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
77', Lemos M. ↓, Umpierrez L. ↑,
89', Fernandez O. ↓, Fagundez F. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Santa Fe have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Peñarol is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Santa Fe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Santa Fe might have a minor edge in this game.

There are questionable in Santa Fe: Murillo E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Peñarol: Herrera N. (Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Santa Fe - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.24%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
04.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Santa Fe	2:2 ✺
01.04.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Llaneros SA	0:1 ✺
27.03.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
23.03.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	Deportivo Cali - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TLWWT
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.04.26	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
29.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:2 ✺
25.03.26	Boston River - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Albion Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWWW

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