Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Platense

	1	X	2
	2	3	4.75	Watch
	1.92	2.92	4.7	Watch
	2.02	3.03	4.96
	1.98	2.99	4.67	Watch
	1.95	2.8	4.4
	2.01	3.01	4.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.66)	2.96 ↓ (3.62)	4.7 ↓ (5.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
47.8%

Draw
32%

Platense
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

25.6%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

24.4%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Peñarol de Montevideo's form might have worsened.

Platense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Platense than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	33.3%	11.1%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Platense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Platense will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Peñarol: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Britos S. (G) 2. Escobar F. 3. Lemos M. 6. Ferreira L. 15. Olivera M. (C) 21. Jesus Trindade 77. Angulo L. 8. Fernandez N. 5. Remedi E. 13. Darias E. 19. Arezo M.	20. Borgogno M. (G) 6. Raggio E. 34. Mendia M. 31. Victor Cuesta 3. Silva T. 26. Ferreira P. 15. Amarfil M. 7. Mainero G. (C) 43. Retamar K. 10. Zapiola F. 9. Nasif T.
Substitutes
22. Alvez F. 18. Barbas G. 9. Batista F. 31. Diaz L. (G) 80. Gonzalez F. 25. Gonzalez M. 11. Hernandez A. 93. Laxalt D. 27. Lucas Hernandez 14. Rodriguez K. 23. Togni G. 32. Umpierrez L.	24. Barrios M. 17. Bussio F. 27. Dalmasso S. 33. Gauto J. 5. Gomez I. 23. Heredia L. 38. Ingenthron C. 4. Lagos A. 99. Lencina G. 18. Merlini B. 22. Sumavil N. (G) 28. Tucker M.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Zunino W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Mainero G. ⚽, Silva T. (A),
26', Escobar F. 🟨,
33', Nasif T. 🟨,
45+3', Zapiola F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Jesus Trindade ↓, Umpierrez L. ↑,
55', Ferreira L. 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Arezo M. ⚽, Angulo L. (A),
60', Mainero G. 🟨,
60', Olivera M. 🟨,
63', 1 - 2, Zapiola F. (Penalty Awarded),
67', Nasif T. ↓, Lencina G. ↑,
67', Zapiola F. ↓, Dalmasso S. ↑,
74', Darias E. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
75', Retamar K. ↓, Lagos A. ↑,
81', Remedi E. 🟨,
84', Mainero G. ↓, Gomez I. ↑,
84', Ferreira P. ↓, Ingenthron C. ↑,
84', Fernandez N. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
90+5', Mendia M. 🟨,
90+7', Escobar F. 🟨,
90+8', Ingenthron C. 🟨,

Preview

In recent matches, Peñarol has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Platense is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Platense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Peñarol is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Platense: Bay J. (Knee Injury) Bobadilla H. (Muscle Injury) Goni G. (Muscle Injury) Minerva F. (Muscle Injury) Portillo M. (Muscle Injury) Quiros S. (Hamstring Injury) Saborido J. (Red Card) Vazquez I. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Peñarol: Herrera N. (Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Platense: 0.75%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.04.26	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
29.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:2 ✺
25.03.26	Boston River - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTWLW
- CA Platense
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.04.26	Platense - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Platense - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.04.26	Lanús - Platense	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Argentinos Juniors - Platense	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Platense - Vélez Sársfield	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TLTLL

Upcoming Matches