Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 22

Date: 16 February 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV5


	Penafiel		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	2.6	3	2.7
	2.4	3.1	2.6
	2.58	3.05	2.68
	2.7	3.09	2.86
	2.61	3.12	2.77	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.7
	2.78	3.06	2.62	Watch
	2.62	3	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 (2.6)	3.03 ↓ (3.12)	2.71 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
35.5%

Draw
30.5%

Lusitânia
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

30%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

31.6%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	36.4%	27.3%

Penafiel - Lusitânia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Lusitânia will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Penafiel: 8% – 64.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Penafiel (votes: 1 - 50%). Lusitânia (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Femenias J. (G) 27. Negrao G. 3. Mere J. 5. Sanchez J. 33. Moreira C. 14. Pereira B. 6. Carbonell A. 21. Pedro Sa (C) 88. Alves R. 28. Schutte R. 20. Santos A.	32. Vitor Hugo (G) 3. Josue Sa 5. Silverio 22. Faria B. 28. Mesquita T. (C) 12. Arsenio 8. Tokinho Doria 16. Rocha L. 21. Joao Vasco 11. Pereira M. 7. Martins R.
Substitutes
19. Alcaina R. 7. Anzai S. 31. Balde M. (G) 37. Davo 61. Injai M. 17. Kebe I. 2. lano Imbene 8. Reko 95. Sery J.	74. Braga G. 29. Cerveira T. 60. Danny 27. Fabinho 24. Mimito 19. Palacios A. 9. Silva J. 23. Sousa M. (G) 88. Teixeira M.
Coaches
Aira J.	Miguel Pedro

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Tokinho Doria 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Santos A. ⚽, Pereira B. (A),
33', Moreira C. 🟨,
45+1', Mere J. ↓, lano Imbene ↑,
45+7', Faria B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tokinho Doria ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
50', 2 - 0, Santos A. ⚽,
51', Carbonell A. 🟨,
53', Sanchez J. 🟨,
56', Mesquita T. ↓, Danny ↑,
56', Martins R. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
62', Carbonell A. ↓, Reko ↑,
66', Faria B. ↓, Palacios A. ↑,
72', Alves R. ↓, Sery J. ↑,
72', Schutte R. ↓, Davo ↑,
72', Negrao G. ↓, Anzai S. ↑,
77', Rocha L. ↓, Cerveira T. ↑,
90+2', Davo 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 5).

Penafiel is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Lusitânia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).

Including home match between the teams, Penafiel won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lusitania FC	6	5	1	0	11:4	7	16
2	Penafiel	6	4	1	1	13:5	8	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
06.02.26	Chaves - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
30.01.26	Penafiel - Leixões	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Oliveirense - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Penafiel - Portimonense	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Penafiel - Paços de Ferreira	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTLLL
- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
07.02.26	Lusitânia - Felgueiras	2:1 ✺
29.01.26	Benfica B - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Chaves - Lusitânia	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Lusitânia - Marítimo	0:4 ✺
08.01.26	Lusitânia - Leixões	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
13.09.25	Lusitânia - Penafiel	0:0
Club Friendly
22.07.19	Penafiel - Lusitânia	0:0

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