The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Lusitânia 21.5%
Draw 28.2%
Marítimo 50.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
27.8%
29.7%
42.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27.2%
29%
43.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lusitânia's form might have worsened.
Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marítimo's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+5.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lusitânia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-6.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marítimo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
22.2%
44.4%
33.3%
Lusitânia - Marítimo Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Lusitânia will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Marítimo will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.
32. Vitor Hugo (G) 5. Silverio (C) 3. Josue Sa 4. Collard D. 29. Cerveira T. 21. Joao Vasco 88. Teixeira M. 16. Rocha L. 77. Tiago Dias 11. Pereira M. 8. Tokinho Doria
12. Samu (G) 2. Igor Juliao 44. Correia R. (C) 5. Madsen N. 25. Freitas A. 21. Bouzaidi S. 10. Tejon M. 98. Ibrahima 14. Raphael Guzzo 3. Butzke A. 28. Carlos Daniel
Substitutes
60. Danny 27. Fabinho 22. Faria B. 7. Martins R. 28. Mesquita T. 19. Palacios A. 99. Platiny 9. Silva J. 23. Sousa M. (G)
6. Andrade R. 90. Borukov P. 18. Danilovic V. 24. Da Rocha Borges R. 20. Gomes Aguiar F. T. 4. Santos Junior E. A. 79. Tavares M. 17. Xavi Grande 34. Zavala K. (G)
Coaches
Miguel Pedro
Moita M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Butzke A. ⚽,
11', 0 - 2, Carlos Daniel ⚽, Butzke A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', 0 - 3, Bouzaidi S. ⚽, Tejon M. (A),
59', 0 - 4, Tejon M. ⚽,
60', Tiago Dias ↓, Danny ↑,
60', Teixeira M. ↓, Platiny ↑,
61', Danny 🟨,
63', Cerveira T. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
71', Madsen N. 🟨,
73', Correia R. ↓, Da Rocha Borges R. ↑,
73', Raphael Guzzo ↓, Danilovic V. ↑,
74', Freitas A. 🟨,
77', Freitas A. ↓, Xavi Grande ↑,
78', Joao Vasco ↓, Fabinho ↑,
78', Silverio ↓, Martins R. ↑,
82', Pereira M. 🟨,
84', Carlos Daniel ↓, Tavares M. ↑,
84', Butzke A. ↓, Borukov P. ↑,
Preview
Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).
Lusitânia is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Marítimo is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Lusitânia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Marítimo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lusitânia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).
Including home match between the teams, Lusitânia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.
Watch
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Vitor Hugo (G) 
Silverio (C) 
Collard D. 
Madsen N. 
Bouzaidi S. 
Tejon M. 
Ibrahima 
Palacios A. 
Borukov P. 
Danilovic V. 
Zavala K. (G) 
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