Match Info

Serie D - Round 13

Date: 20 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Alfredo Leahy (Penedo)


	Penedense		União Carmolandense

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.1
	2.15	3.15	3
	2.22	3.26	3
	2.97	2.53	2.87	Watch
	2.22	3.08	3.08
	2.16	3.25	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.14)	3.06 ↓ (3.2)	3.03 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penedense
39.8%

Draw
29.9%

União Carmolandense
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

28.1%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

29.4%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penedense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

União Carmolandense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for União Carmolandense than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Penedense - União Carmolandense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - União Carmolandense (2.12) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. União Carmolandense (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+3', 1 - 0, Romario Valenca (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 and 6)

Penedense is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

União Carmolandense is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Penedense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Penedense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Penedense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Penedense
Brazilian Serie D
13.07.25	Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:1 ✺
06.07.25	Lagarto - Penedense	4:0 ✺
28.06.25	Sergipe - Penedense	2:0 ✺
15.06.25	Penedense - Juazeirense	0:0 ✺
08.06.25	Jequié - Penedense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLLTT
- União Carmolandense
Brazilian Serie D
12.07.25	União Carmolandense - Jequié	1:0 ✺
06.07.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - União Carmolandense	4:1 ✺
28.06.25	União Carmolandense - Juazeirense	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	União Carmolandense - Sergipe	2:0 ✺
07.06.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - União Carmolandense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.8 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
26.04.25	União Carmolandense - Penedense	1:1

Penedense - União Carmolandense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide