Match Info

Super League - Round 23

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium (Surabaya)

Where to Watch on TV:


Indonesia	Indosiar, Vidio


	Persebaya Surabaya		PSM Makassar

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.3
	1.95	3.2	3.5
	1.95	3.52	3.89
	2.02	3.48	3.49	Watch
	1.91	3.2	3.6
	1.88	3.26	3.8
	1.97	3.05	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2)	3.27 ↑ (3.23)	3.53 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Persebaya Surabaya
46.6%

Draw
27.7%

PSM Makassar
25.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.9%

28.4%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27.3%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Persebaya Surabaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

PSM Makassar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Persebaya Surabaya than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PSM Makassar than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Persebaya Surabaya - PSM Makassar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Persebaya (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Persebaya Surabaya will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Ari E. (G) 10. Bruno (C) 2. Catur A. 22. Freitas Gali 17. Jefferson 24. Lelis L. S. 5. Mitrevski R. 55. Putra S. 88. Raickovic M. 7. Rivera F. 12. Suaib A.	30. Arya R. (G) 2. Aloisio Neto 21. Boboev S. 99. Cumic L. 4. Fernandes Y. (C) 40. Gledson 71. Hidayat M. 94. Lagator D. 24. Pratama R. 88. Raehan A. 8. Savio Roberto
Substitutes
33. Araya K. 14. Ardiansyah R. 81. Baihaqi M. 8. Fernando O. 44. Gustavo Fernandes 66. Kardanu S. 16. Matos P. 72. Maulana A. 78. Mujtaba A. 52. Ramadhani A. (G) 15. Tata M. 26. Wicaksono D.	9. Alex Tanque 19. Amrullah K. 48. Arfan M. 27. Asraf Huwaidi Syam M. D. 7. Dethan V. 6. Fandi R. 98. Medina Themopole J. 81. Rahaman A. 79. Ramadhany F. (G) 32. Septiawan R. D. 51. Syamsuddin S. (G) 45. Tanjung A.
Coaches
Tavares B.	Trucha T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Rivera F. 🟨,
27', 1 - 0, Freitas Gali ⚽,
29', Savio Roberto 🟨,
36', Lagator D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gledson ↓, Arfan M. ↑,
53', Putra S. 🟨,
56', Putra S. ↓, Ardiansyah R. ↑,
63', Pratama R. ↓, Medina Themopole J. ↑,
63', Savio Roberto ↓, Alex Tanque ↑,
66', Freitas Gali ↓, Matos P. ↑,
66', Suaib A. ↓, Tata M. ↑,
66', Raickovic M. ↓, Gustavo Fernandes ↑,
72', Hidayat M. ↓, Asraf Huwaidi Syam M. D. ↑,
86', Cumic L. ↓, Dethan V. ↑,
90+4', Arfan M. 🟨,
90+6', Rivera F. ↓, Maulana A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Persebaya won 2.

Persebaya has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Makassar's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Persebaya is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Persebaya won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:15. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Persebaya won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 16:5. (average 2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Persebaya	5	2	3	0	6:4	2	9
13	PSM Makassar	5	1	2	2	8:12	-4	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Persebaya Surabaya
Indonesian Super League
21.02.26	Persijap Jepara - Persebaya Surabaya	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Persebaya Surabaya - Bhayangkara	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Bali United Pusam - Persebaya Surabaya	1:3 ✺
01.02.26	Persebaya Surabaya - Dewa United	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	PSIM Yogyakarta - Persebaya Surabaya	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLWTW
- PSM Makassar
Indonesian Super League
20.02.26	Persija Jakarta - PSM Makassar	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	PSM Makassar - Dewa United	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	PSBS Biak Numfor - PSM Makassar	1:2 ✺
02.02.26	PSM Makassar - Semen Padang	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	Persijap Jepara - PSM Makassar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Indonesian Super League
06.12.25	PSM Makassar - Persebaya Surabaya	1:1
07.03.25	PSM Makassar - Persebaya Surabaya	0:1
23.10.24	Persebaya Surabaya - PSM Makassar	1:1
28.02.24	PSM Makassar - Persebaya Surabaya	0:0
18.08.23	Persebaya Surabaya - PSM Makassar	1:0
24.02.23	Persebaya Surabaya - PSM Makassar	0:1
10.09.22	PSM Makassar - Persebaya Surabaya	3:0

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