Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 18

Date: 19 December 2022, Monday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)


	Perugia		Venezia

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	2.9	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.9
	2.5	3.05	3
	2.55	2.95	2.85
	2.66	3.06	3.09
	2.6	2.9	2.9
	2.57	3.02	2.93	Watch
	2.55	3.05	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.56)	3.02 ↓ (3.11)	2.93 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
36.7%

Draw
31.2%

Venezia
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

29.7%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

29.7%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Venezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Venezia than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.8%	44.8%	35.4%

Perugia - Venezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 96 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 19 - 19.8%). Venezia will win (votes: 34 - 35.4%). It will Tie (votes: 43 - 44.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 34.9% – 54.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Perugia has the most likely position - 20 (26.53%), has project points - 38, has currently - 13, has a good chance of relegated (69%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Venezia has the most likely position - 14 (7.5%), has project points - 48, has currently - 19, has a chance of relegated (18%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (24%), has a small chance of promoted (6%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 30, importance 39, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Perugia won 2.

Recent matches Perugia is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Venezia is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Perugia won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
11.12.22	Cagliari - Perugia	3:2 ✺
08.12.22	Perugia - SPAL	0:0 ✺
04.12.22	Nuova Cosenza - Perugia	0:0 ✺
27.11.22	Perugia - Genoa	1:0 ✺
12.11.22	Modena - Perugia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LTTWT
- Venezia FC
Italian Serie B
11.12.22	Venezia - Nuova Cosenza	2:0 ✺
08.12.22	Modena - Venezia	2:2 ✺
03.12.22	Venezia - Ternana	2:1 ✺
27.11.22	Palermo - Venezia	0:1 ✺
12.11.22	Venezia - Reggina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
31.07.20	Venezia - Perugia	3:1
29.12.19	Perugia - Venezia	0:1
27.02.19	Venezia - Perugia	2:3
06.10.18	Perugia - Venezia	1:0
03.06.18	Venezia - Perugia	3:0
14.04.18	Perugia - Venezia	1:1
12.11.17	Venezia - Perugia	1:0

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