Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 14

Date: 27 November 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Referee: Aureliano G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Perugia		Genoa

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.1	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3.2	2.1
	3.5	3.2	2.1
	3.5	3.1	2.13
	3.83	3.23	2.19
	3.9	3.1	2.05
	3.44	3.32	2.13	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.6 ↓ (4.34)	3.19 ↓ (3.39)	2.11 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
26.1%

Draw
29.4%

Genoa
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

27.1%

51.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

27%

51.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Genoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Genoa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Genoa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	6.1%	84.8%

Perugia - Genoa Predictions

Users Predictions: Genoa will win (28 of 33 users predict this - 84.85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.62% – 97.08%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Perugia has the most likely position - 20 (30.64%), has project points - 36, has currently - 8, has a good chance of relegated (69%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Genoa has the most likely position - 2 (15.75%), has project points - 63, has currently - 23, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (52%), has a chance of promoted (42%), has a small chance of win league (15%).

This event has quality 32, importance 52, match rating 42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Perugia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Genoa is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Perugia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Genoa is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Perugia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
12.11.22	Modena - Perugia	1:1 ✺
05.11.22	Frosinone - Perugia	1:0 ✺
30.10.22	Perugia - Cittadella	0:2 ✺
22.10.22	Reggina - Perugia	2:3 ✺
16.10.22	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TLLWL
- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie B
13.11.22	Genoa - Como	1:1 ✺
07.11.22	Reggina - Genoa	2:1 ✺
29.10.22	Genoa - Brescia	1:1 ✺
22.10.22	Ternana - Genoa	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
18.10.22	Genoa - SPAL	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
13.08.21	Genoa - Perugia	3:2
01.12.16	Genoa - Perugia	4:3 ET

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