Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 13

Date: 12 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Ghersini D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Modena		Perugia

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.6	Watch
	2	3.3	3.6
	2.05	3.3	3.55
	2.04	3.25	3.55
	2.1	3.44	3.83
	2	3.3	3.7
	1.97	3.54	3.7	Watch
	2.03	3.35	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.12)	3.36 ↑ (3.28)	3.64 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
46.3%

Draw
27.9%

Perugia
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

28.3%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

24.7%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Modena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Perugia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Modena - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Perugia will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Modena: 44.9% – 88.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Modena has the most likely position - 18 (10.24%), has project points - 44, has currently - 13, has a chance of relegated (36%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (12%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Perugia has the most likely position - 20 (27.52%), has project points - 36, has currently - 7, has a good chance of relegated (68%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 27, importance 47, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Modena won 1.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Modena will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Modena won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 3-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Modena won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
05.11.22	Cittadella - Modena	0:0 ✺
29.10.22	Modena - Palermo	0:2 ✺
23.10.22	Pisa - Modena	4:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
20.10.22	Cremonese - Modena	4:2 ET ✺
Italian Serie B
15.10.22	Modena - Como	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLLLW
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
05.11.22	Frosinone - Perugia	1:0 ✺
30.10.22	Perugia - Cittadella	0:2 ✺
22.10.22	Reggina - Perugia	2:3 ✺
16.10.22	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:2 ✺
09.10.22	Como - Perugia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
27.02.21	Perugia - Modena	3:0
01.11.20	Modena - Perugia	0:1
Italian Serie B
19.04.16	Modena - Perugia	3:0
04.12.15	Perugia - Modena	1:0
13.02.15	Perugia - Modena	2:0
23.09.14	Modena - Perugia	0:0

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