Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 10 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Gonzalez F. (Chi)


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Caracas

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.27	5.25	11.5
	1.25	5.45	13	Watch
	1.27	5.65	12.5
	1.27	5.68	12.35
	1.25	5	11	Watch
	1.3	5.77	8.77	Watch
	1.27	5	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.3)	5.4 ↑ (4.7)	11.45 ↑ (10)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
74.3%

Draw
17.5%

Caracas
8.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.1%

19.7%

9.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75%

18.7%

8.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Caracas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Caracas Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Caracas will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Peñarol: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Amores G. (G) 18. Mayada C. 23. Mendez J. 4. Rodriguez G. 15. Olivera M. 13. Darias E. 14. Garcia D. 8. Fernandez L. 10. Ramirez G. 7. Cabrera J. 11. Silvera M.	1. Farinez W. (G) 30. Casiani L. 2. La Mantia F. 6. Quijada R. (C) 29. Rivas R. 8. Ortega B. 21. Rodriguez V. 16. Figueroa R. 24. Jimenez N. 7. Perez D. 11. Pernia E.
Substitutes
33. Acosta N. 3. Gianoli M. 30. Gonzalez A. 9. Gonzalez F. 2. Leo Coelho 27. Lucas Hernandez 22. Matheus Babi 20. Milans P. 28. Neris P. 1. Rodriguez R. (G) 19. Sosa D. 25. Sosa I.	10. Contreras A. 33. Correa W. 14. Echenique E. 27. Edet B. 23. Hernandez W. (G) 4. Rodriguez B. 20. Salazar L. 22. Sulbaran M. 25. Tamayo B. 5. Vegas M.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Melendez H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Silvera M. ⚽, Darias E. (A),
18', Darias E. 🟨,
19', Ortega B. 🟨,
25', 2 - 0, Silvera M. ⚽, Olivera M. (A),
32', 3 - 0, Mendez J. ⚽, Fernandez L. (A),
45', 4 - 0, Darias E. ⚽, Cabrera J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Darias E. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
46', Figueroa R. ↓, Echenique E. ↑,
46', Perez D. ↓, Edet B. ↑,
51', Olivera M. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
51', Mendez J. ↓, Leo Coelho ↑,
59', Ramirez G. ↓, Matheus Babi ↑,
59', Lucas Hernandez 🟨,
64', 5 - 0, Silvera M. ⚽,
71', Silvera M. ↓, Sosa I. ↑,
73', Casiani L. 🟥,
80', Rodriguez V. ↓, Vegas M. ↑,
80', Jimenez N. ↓, Salazar L. ↑,
90+1', Ortega B. ↓, Correa W. ↑,

Preview

Peñarol is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Caracas is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Peñarol is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.04.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.24	Rosario Central - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.03.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
16.03.24	Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
09.03.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLTWW
- Caracas FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
07.04.24	Metropolitanos - Caracas	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.24	Caracas - Atlético Mineiro	1:4 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
30.03.24	Caracas - Inter de Barinas	1:2 ✺
24.03.24	Monagas - Caracas	1:1 ✺
20.03.24	Caracas - Angostura	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLLTL

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