Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cerro		Progreso

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.9	2.75	Watch
	2.48	2.98	2.82
	2.64	2.98	3.04
	2.56	3	2.95	Watch
	2.6	2.8	2.8
	2.56	2.96	2.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.45)	2.94 ↓ (2.97)	2.88 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro
36.3%

Draw
31.5%

Progreso
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

30.9%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

29.6%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Cerro - Progreso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 22. Suarez D. 16. Guasone J. 5. Macelli A. (C) 18. Sena N. 31. Amaro J. 19. Sosa E. 10. Aleman B. 27. Barros C. 9. Morales B. 33. Rijo T.	1. Mehring A. (G) 15. Martin M. 4. Paolini M. 13. Carroso H. 40. Cougo A. 8. Colombino A. (C) 29. Fernandez N. 24. Viera S. 5. Pinheiro A. 11. Lopez N. 9. Silva G.
Substitutes
28. Cambon A. 40. Capdevila D. (G) 44. Carlos R. 3. Lima A. 32. Mederos R. 21. Mendez A. 8. Miranda A. 17. Rodriguez G. 7. Severo A. 14. Soria N.	30. Codagnone A. 7. Fernandez F. 3. Garcia F. 10. Lemmo I. 19. Lopez F. 22. Paz A. 33. Requena A. (G) 21. Rivero J. 93. Sanchez D. 18. Silva G.
Coaches
Abeijon N.	Rocco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Sosa E. 🟨,
29', Rijo T. 🟨,
33', Fernandez N. 🟨,
34', Suarez D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Silva G. ↓, Paz A. ↑,
61', Barros C. ↓, Mendez A. ↑,
61', Aleman B. ↓, Severo A. ↑,
73', Lopez N. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
73', Morales B. ↓, Cambon A. ↑,
73', Rijo T. ↓, Soria N. ↑,
77', Suarez D. ↓, Carlos R. ↑,
82', Fernandez N. ↓, Lemmo I. ↑,
82', Viera S. ↓, Fernandez F. ↑,
83', 0 - 1, Fernandez F. ⚽,
90+1', Cougo A. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
90+4', Macelli A. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 1.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Progreso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 17:21. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.5:1.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	CA Cerro	9	4	2	3	9:11	-2	14
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
08.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	1:0 ✺
27.02.26	Cerro - Boston River	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Cerro - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
16.02.26	Albion Montevideo - Cerro	3:0 ✺
09.02.26	Cerro - Danubio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTTLL
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.03.26	Progreso - Albion Montevideo	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Danubio - Progreso	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Progreso	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Progreso - Central Español	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
05.10.25	Progreso - Cerro	2:0
06.04.25	Cerro - Progreso	0:0
14.09.24	Progreso - Cerro	0:1
01.03.24	Cerro - Progreso	2:3
Uruguayan Segunda Division
10.09.22	Cerro - Progreso	1:1
18.06.22	Progreso - Cerro	0:0
25.03.22	Progreso - Cerro	2:1

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