Match Info

Date: 4 December 2021, Saturday


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Sud América

	1	X	2
	1.28	4.5	9	Watch
	1.28	5.25	9.25
	1.22	5.25	10
	1.3	4.9	8.2
	1.3	5.35	12.07
	1.29	4.6	9.5
	1.3	5.2	9.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.35)	5.01 ↑ (4.6)	9.6 ↑ (7.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
72%

Draw
18.4%

Sud América
9.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.3%

20%

11.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

10.8%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Sud América has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-35%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Peñarol de Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sud América than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sud América could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Peñarol de Montevideo - Sud América Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Play Offs) and 15).

Peñarol is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Sud América is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Peñarol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Peñarol is absolute favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Peñarol won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 21-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Peñarol won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.11.21	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0 ✺
22.11.21	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:2 ✺
07.11.21	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:0 ✺
04.11.21	Cerrito - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3 ✺
31.10.21	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TTWWT
- IA Sud América
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.11.21	Sud América - Rentistas	3:1 ✺
19.11.21	Montevideo Wanderers - Sud América	4:1 ✺
08.11.21	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Sud América	1:2 ✺
04.11.21	Sud América - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
30.10.21	Sud América - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
22.08.21	Sud América - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1
08.11.17	Sud América - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:3
01.04.17	Peñarol de Montevideo - Sud América	4:0
29.10.16	Sud América - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:4
05.03.16	Peñarol de Montevideo - Sud América	1:1
13.09.15	Sud América - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:4
21.03.15	Sud América - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0

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