Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio Comunale (Piancastagnaio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Pianese		Livorno

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.42	3.05	2.82
	2.63	3.18	2.71
	7.19	3.80	1.49	Watch
	2.4	3.06	2.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↑ (2.05)	3.27 ↓ (3.3)	2.44 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pianese
27.6%

Draw
30.9%

Livorno
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pianese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pianese's form might have worsened.

Livorno has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Livorno's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pianese than the current prediction. (+17.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pianese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Livorno, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Pianese - Livorno Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Pianese (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Livorno (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Pianese (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Livorno (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Filippis E. (G) 56. Masetti L. 16. Chesti F. 15. Gorelli M. 19. Sussi C. 21. Tirelli M. 30. Proietto F. 27. Bertini M. 33. Coccia L. 7. Peli L. 11. Bellini L.	22. Ciobanu N. D. (G) 15. Ghezzi S. 26. Noce M. 49. Baldi L. 19. Antoni E. 8. Welbeck N. 28. Hamlili Z. 14. Biondi K. 17. Panaioli L. 70. Cioffi A. 13. Di Carmine S.
Substitutes
5. Balde M. 12. Bertini T. (G) 23. Chiavarino M. 47. Jasharovski A. 77. Martey C. 70. Nicastro M. 37. Porciatti F. (G) 10. Puletto F. 25. Spinosa L. 71. Xhani K.	16. Calvosa A. 9. Dionisi F. 2. Gentile D. 20. Haveri K. 11. Malva A. 95. Marchesi F. 23. Marinari J. 77. Mawete J. C. 6. Monaco S. 5. Nwachukwu S. J. 4. Odjer M. 18. Panattoni M. 55. Peralta D. 1. Tani F. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 🟨,
28', Peli L. ↓, Martey C. ↑,
34', 0 - 1, Cioffi A. ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 1, Bellini L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 2 - 1, Martey C. ⚽,
52', Gorelli M. 🟨,
61', Panaioli L. ↓, Peralta D. ↑,
61', Ghezzi S. ↓, Haveri K. ↑,
61', Antoni E. ↓, Gentile D. ↑,
75', Cioffi A. ↓, Malva A. ↑,
85', Baldi L. ↓, Dionisi F. ↑,
86', Proietto F. ↓, Balde M. ↑,
86', Coccia L. ↓, Puletto F. ↑,
90+2', Balde M. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 15).

Pianese has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Livorno is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pianese won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pianese won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 2.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Pianese ASD
Italian Serie C Group B
27.09.25	Perugia - Pianese	0:1 ✺
23.09.25	Pianese - Arezzo	2:4 ✺
20.09.25	Vis Pesaro - Pianese	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Pianese - Sambenedettese	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Sassari Torres - Pianese	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 WLTTW
- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group B
27.09.25	Livorno - Campobasso	0:0 ✺
23.09.25	Bra - Livorno	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Livorno - Ascoli	0:3 ✺
14.09.25	Vis Pesaro - Livorno	3:0 ✺
07.09.25	Livorno - Guidonia Montecelio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
10.03.24	Livorno - Pianese	1:1
15.11.23	Pianese - Livorno	1:1
14.05.23	Pianese - Livorno	3:1
02.04.23	Livorno - Pianese	2:2
20.11.22	Pianese - Livorno	3:0

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