Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 10

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani (Pineto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252


	Pineto		Perugia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.35	3	2.98
	2.41	3.1	3.19
	1.34	4.44	9.54	Watch
	2.35	2.93	3.01	Watch
	2.25	3.05	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.36)	3.3 ↑ (3.08)	4.3 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pineto
46.6%

Draw
30.2%

Perugia
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

29.7%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

27.4%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pineto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pineto's performance.

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Perugia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pineto than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pineto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Perugia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pineto - Perugia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pineto (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Tonti A. (G) 17. Baggi F. 52. Frare D. 4. Postiglione N. 11. Borsoi M. 21. Lombardi L. 28. Nebuloso G. 8. Germinario G. 5. Schirone L. 10. Bruzzaniti G. 9. D'Andrea F.	1. Gemello L. (G) 99. Nwanege K. 28. Riccardi D. 31. Tozzuolo A. 26. Calapai L. 6. Giunti G. 32. Megelaitis L. 20. Tumbarello G. 98. Giraudo F. 9. Montevago D. 30. Giardino C.
Substitutes
6. Amadio S. 55. Capomaggio T. 16. Gagliardi L. 3. Ienco S. 99. Marone F. (G) 7. Marrancone A. 68. Menna T. 25. Saccomanni G. 23. Serbouti A. 45. Tupone S. 12. Verna A. (G) 18. Viero F.	5. Angella G. 16. Bartolomei P. 21. Broh J. 27. Calzoni S. 4. Joselito 12. Moro L. (G) 29. Ogunseye R. 71. Rondolini P. 17. Terrnava D. 24. Torrasi E. 3. Yabre M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Germinario G. ⚽,
27', 2 - 0, Bruzzaniti G. ⚽,
38', Giardino C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nwanege K. ↓, Joselito ↑,
50', Schirone L. 🟨,
53', Nebuloso G. 🟨,
60', Nebuloso G. ↓, Viero F. ↑,
60', Schirone L. ↓, Marrancone A. ↑,
62', Calapai L. ↓, Yabre M. ↑,
62', Giraudo F. ↓, Torrasi E. ↑,
62', Giardino C. ↓, Ogunseye R. ↑,
75', Borsoi M. ↓, Ienco S. ↑,
77', Tumbarello G. ↓, Broh J. ↑,
78', Tozzuolo A. 🟨,
79', 🟨,
90+3', Baggi F. ↓, Gagliardi L. ↑,
90+3', Lombardi L. ↓, Saccomanni G. ↑,
90+8', 3 - 0, Marrancone A. ⚽,
90+9', Marrancone A. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Pineto has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Perugia is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Pineto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pineto won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Pineto won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Pineto Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
11.10.25	Pineto - Livorno	3:0 ✺
04.10.25	Ternana - Pineto	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Pineto - Rimini	1:2 ✺
23.09.25	Ascoli - Pineto	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Pineto - Juventus U23	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLLLL
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
11.10.25	Perugia - Rimini	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Carpi - Perugia	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Perugia - Pianese	0:1 ✺
23.09.25	Perugia - Sambenedettese	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Ravenna - Perugia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
28.03.25	Perugia - Pineto	3:0
16.11.24	Pineto - Perugia	3:1
Coppa Italia Serie C
18.08.24	Pineto - Perugia	0:2
Italian Serie C Group B
23.03.24	Perugia - Pineto	2:2
18.11.23	Pineto - Perugia	1:1

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