Match Info
Serie D - Group D - Round 26Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday
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Pistoiese |
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Progresso |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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1.28 |
4.45 |
9.4 |
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 |
1.26 |
4.77 |
10.34 |
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 |
1.27 |
4.69 |
10.63 |
 Watch |
 |
1.29 |
4.2 |
10 |
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 |
1.32 |
4.89 |
9.59 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.28 ↓
(1.48) |
4.6 ↑
(3.58) |
9.99 ↑
(6.68) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
- The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Pistoiese
71% | Draw
19.8% | Progresso
9.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pistoiese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pistoiese's performance.Progresso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pistoiese than the current prediction. (-6.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pistoiese that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progresso than the current prediction. (+3.7%)Pistoiese - Progresso Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 9', 1 - 0, Rizq K. ⚽,
- 30', Gennari M. 🟥,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: ) and 11).Pistoiese is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).Progresso is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins โ 0).Pistoiese may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, Pistoiese is the undeniable favorite.We predict that Pistoiese will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pistoiese won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:4. (average 2:0.8).Including home matches between the teams, Pistoiese won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Pistoiese | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17:1 | 16 | 18 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Italian Serie D - Group D | | | 26.10.25 | Progresso - Pistoiese | 2:2 | | 19.01.25 | Pistoiese - Progresso | 3:0 | | 22.09.24 | Progresso - Pistoiese | 0:2 | | 03.03.24 | Progresso - Pistoiese | 1:1 | | 28.10.23 | Pistoiese - Progresso | 2:1 |
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