Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 22

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday


	Desenzano Calvina		Progresso

	1	X	2
	1.63	3.61	4.9	Watch
	1.62	3.52	4.99
	1.63	3.6	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.62)	3.58 ↓ (3.6)	4.88 ↓ (5.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desenzano Calvina
55.9%

Draw
25.4%

Progresso
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

25.4%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

24.3%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desenzano Calvina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Progresso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progresso than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Desenzano Calvina - Progresso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Gori M. ⚽,
23', 1 - 1, ⚽,
36', 2 - 1, Brighenti A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
70', 3 - 1, Gasperi M. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: ) and 11).

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, Desenzano is considered a favorite.

We predict that Desenzano will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Desenzano won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:1. (average 2:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Desenzano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group D
25.01.26	Correggese - Desenzano Calvina	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Desenzano Calvina - Tuttocuoio	3:0 ✺
11.01.26	Pro Palazzolo - Desenzano Calvina	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Desenzano Calvina - Piacenza	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Desenzano Calvina - Sangiuliano City Nova	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWWL
- SCD Progresso Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group D
25.01.26	Progresso - Crema	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Tropical Coriano - Progresso	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Progresso - Trevigliese	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Pro Sesto - Progresso	0:2 ✺
21.12.25	Sasso Marconi - Progresso	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
28.09.25	Progresso - Desenzano Calvina	0:1
02.02.20	Desenzano Calvina - Progresso	5:0
29.09.19	Progresso - Desenzano Calvina	1:0

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