Match Info

Copa Uruguay - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Uruguay	VTV+


	Plaza Colonia		Albion Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.02	2.96	2.82
	3.08	2.69	2.65	Watch
	2.72	3.1	2.64
	2.6	3.15	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.65)	2.98 ↓ (3.25)	2.63 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plaza Colonia
32.8%

Draw
31.5%

Albion Montevideo
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

28.1%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

27.4%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plaza Colonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Albion Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albion Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Plaza Colonia - Albion Montevideo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Reyes G. (G) 15. Meite Y. 18. Cayetano A. 4. Ruiz Diaz H. 6. Redin M. 13. Garcia J. 30. Maidana A. 23. Piriz F. (C) 17. Otegui S. 11. Bueno G. 77. Acosta B.	1. Jaume S. (G) 2. Casavalle T. 4. Ibanez F. (C) 16. de Freitas A. 29. Puente F. 30. Brum A. 5. Alegre G. 20. Gutierrez R. 17. Amoroso V. 9. Sosa F. 79. Roldan N.
Substitutes
27. Barros C. 3. Calleros Y. 80. Carrizo L. 7. Lopez A. 2. Lorenzi M. 5. Pachame S. 22. Ramos J. 25. Silva J. (G) 14. Vergara H. 19. Wurth V.	10. Airala C. 21. Alcoba P. 24. Burdin E. 22. Burruzo M. 7. Jara V. 13. Lacoste P. 80. Leonardo Pais 12. Rodriguez R. (G) 25. Romero A. 27. Viega R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Meite Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gutierrez R. ↓, Viega R. ↑,
52', Roldan N. 🟨,
55', 🟨,
65', Brum A. ↓, Leonardo Pais ↑,
65', Roldan N. ↓, Airala C. ↑,
65', Amoroso V. ↓, Burruzo M. ↑,
65', Meite Y. ↓, Pachame S. ↑,
65', Piriz F. ↓, Calleros Y. ↑,
65', Bueno G. ↓, Vergara H. ↑,
65', Garcia J. ↓, Carrizo L. ↑,
78', Ruiz Diaz H. ↓, Lorenzi M. ↑,
80', Puente F. ↓, Lacoste P. ↑,
83', 🟨,
83', Vergara H. 🟨,
89', 1 - 0, Vergara H. ⚽,
90+1', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+4', Burruzo M. (Pen),

Preview

Plaza Colonia is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Albion has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Albion may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Plaza Colonia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Plaza Colonia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Albion Montevideo - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.43%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.09.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Boston River - Plaza Colonia	6:1 ✺
14.09.25	Plaza Colonia - Nacional Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
11.09.25	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TLLWL
- Albion Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
27.09.25	Albion Montevideo - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Colón Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Albion Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.09.25	Albion Montevideo - Porongos	4:0 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
06.09.25	Oriental de La Paz - Albion Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
13.10.24	Albion Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	2:1
05.07.24	Plaza Colonia - Albion Montevideo	0:2
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.08.22	Albion Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:0
19.03.22	Plaza Colonia - Albion Montevideo	1:1

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