Match Info

League One - Round 34

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Home Park (Plymouth)

Referee: Drysdale D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Plymouth Argyle		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.6	2.25
	2.82	3.55	2.28
	2.95	3.79	2.25
	2.98	3.62	2.21	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.1
	2.88	3.58	2.27	Watch
	2.83	3.75	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.14)	3.61 ↑ (3.4)	2.23 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plymouth Argyle
32.4%

Draw
25.8%

Cardiff City
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

27%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

26.8%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Cardiff City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	8.3%	66.7%

Plymouth Argyle - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Plymouth will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Cardiff will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cardiff: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Plymouth (votes: 2 - 50%). Cardiff (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Cardiff (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Cardiff (2.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Plymouth (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Cardiff (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hazard C. (G) 8. Edwards J. (C) 2. Ross M. 15. Mitchell A. 45. Harding W. 28. Curtis R. 19. Boateng M. 4. Wiredu B. 17. Watts C. 9. Tolaj L. 27. Pepple A.	13. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. 4. Osho G. 12. Chambers C. (C) 3. Bagan J. 18. Robertson A. 14. Turnbull D. 11. Tanner O. 27. Colwill J. 16. Willock C. 8. Kellyman O.
Substitutes
10. Amaechi X. 21. Ashby-Hammond L. (G) 35. Dale O. 23. Ibrahim B. 3. MacKenzie J. 5. Pleguezuelo J. 29. Sorinola M.	45. Ashford C. 10. Colwill R. 44. Kpakio R. 48. Lawlor D. 47. Robinson C. 23. Scanlon C. 6. Wintle R.
Coaches
Cleverley T.	Barry-Murphy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
15', Kellyman O. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Tolaj L. ⚽, Pepple A. (A),
31', 2 - 0, Pepple A. ⚽, Edwards J. (A),
33', 2 - 1, Kellyman O. ⚽,
34', 3 - 1, Pepple A. ⚽, Harding W. (A),
37', Watts C. 🟨,
43', 3 - 2, Kellyman O. ⚽, Ng P. (A),
44', Ross M. 🟨,
45+6', Osho G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Watts C. ↓, Sorinola M. ↑,
46', Turnbull D. ↓, Colwill R. ↑,
62', Willock C. ↓, Ashford C. ↑,
62', Colwill J. ↓, Robinson C. ↑,
67', Ng P. 🟨,
68', 4 - 2, Tolaj L. (Penalty Awarded),
70', Boateng M. 🟨,
72', Robertson A. 🟨,
76', Ng P. ↓, Kpakio R. ↑,
80', Wiredu B. ↓, Ibrahim B. ↑,
81', 5 - 2, Ross M. ⚽, Curtis R. (A),
85', Tolaj L. ↓, Amaechi X. ↑,
86', Pepple A. ↓, Dale O. ↑,
88', Bagan J. ↓, Scanlon C. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Plymouth won 1.

Recent performances by Plymouth have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cardiff is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Plymouth: Galloway B. (Inactive) Pleguezuelo J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Cardiff: King E. (Knee Injury) Salech Y. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Plymouth: Ralls J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Davies I. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Plymouth won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 1:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Plymouth won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Outrights of English League One for now

Plymouth: 10.74%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Plymouth	10	6	1	3	18:12	6	19

Last Results with these Odds

Cardiff City - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.74%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plymouth Argyle
English League One
17.02.26	Leyton Orient - Plymouth Argyle	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Blackpool - Plymouth Argyle	0:4 ✺
07.02.26	Plymouth Argyle - Lincoln City	1:4 ✺
31.01.26	Stockport County - Plymouth Argyle	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	Plymouth Argyle - Mansfield Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWLLT
- Cardiff City
English League One
17.02.26	Cardiff City - AFC Wimbledon	4:1 ✺
14.02.26	Cardiff City - Luton Town	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Rotherham United - Cardiff City	0:3 ✺
31.01.26	Burton Albion - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
27.01.26	Cardiff City - Barnsley	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
30.08.25	Cardiff City - Plymouth Argyle	4:0
English League Championship
22.02.25	Plymouth Argyle - Cardiff City	1:1
19.10.24	Cardiff City - Plymouth Argyle	5:0
20.01.24	Plymouth Argyle - Cardiff City	3:1
26.12.23	Cardiff City - Plymouth Argyle	2:2
Club Friendly
21.07.17	Plymouth Argyle - Cardiff City	0:1

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