Match Info

League One - Round 32

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)


	Cardiff City		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	4.5
	1.68	3.95	4.45
	1.74	4.05	4.8
	1.83	3.7	4.04	Watch
	1.85	3.7	4.33
	1.67	4.01	4.51	Watch
	1.75	3.8	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.92)	3.89 ↑ (3.42)	4.42 ↑ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff City
54.4%

Draw
24.3%

Luton Town
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

27%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

26.2%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cardiff City's performance.

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	0%	6.7%

Cardiff City - Luton Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Cardiff City will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. 4. Osho G. 12. Chambers C. (C) 3. Bagan J. 18. Robertson A. 14. Turnbull D. 11. Tanner O. 27. Colwill J. 16. Willock C. 8. Kellyman O.	24. Keeley J. (G) 17. Lonwijk N. 5. Andersen M. 15. Mengi T. 38. Johnson J. 54. Palmer K. 25. Jones I. 27. Richards J. 18. Clark J. (C) 30. Kodua G. 22. Cole D.
Substitutes
45. Ashford C. 10. Colwill R. 2. Fish W. 44. Kpakio R. 48. Lawlor D. 47. Robinson C. 30. Tyrer H. (G)	12. Al Hamadi A. 14. Morris S. 3. Naismith K. 23. Saville G. 1. Shea J. (G) 6. van den Berg D. 21. Wells N.
Coaches
Barry-Murphy B.	Wilshere J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Turnbull D. ⚽, Colwill J. (A),
13', Turnbull D. 🟨,
18', Bagan J. 🟨,
20', 1 - 1, Clark J. (Penalty Awarded),
37', 2 - 1, Colwill J. ⚽, Tanner O. (A),
42', 3 - 1, Ng P. ⚽, Robertson A. (A),
45+1', Lonwijk N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kodua G. ↓, Al Hamadi A. ↑,
55', Bagan J. ↓, Kpakio R. ↑,
64', Trott N. 🟨,
66', Johnson J. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
66', Cole D. ↓, Wells N. ↑,
69', Willock C. ↓, Ashford C. ↑,
69', Kellyman O. ↓, Robinson C. ↑,
69', Colwill J. ↓, Colwill R. ↑,
73', Richards J. ↓, van den Berg D. ↑,
76', Palmer K. 🟨,
89', Robertson A. ↓, Lawlor D. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 1.

Cardiff is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Luton has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Cardiff is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Cardiff: Colwill R. (Ankle Injury) King E. (Knee Injury) Lawlor D. (Inactive) Salech Y. (Inactive) Wintle R. (Red Card)

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Baptiste S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Bramall C. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.3:1.5).

Outrights of English League One for now

Luton: 6.34%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Luton	8	3	2	3	16:15	1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff City
English League One
07.02.26	Rotherham United - Cardiff City	0:3 ✺
31.01.26	Burton Albion - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
27.01.26	Cardiff City - Barnsley	4:0 ✺
24.01.26	Cardiff City - Stockport County	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Bradford City - Cardiff City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTWTW
- Luton Town
English League One
07.02.26	Luton Town - Bradford City	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Luton Town - Blackpool	1:0 ✺
27.01.26	Huddersfield Town - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Plymouth Argyle - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Luton Town - Lincoln City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
23.08.25	Luton Town - Cardiff City	0:1
English League Championship
11.03.25	Cardiff City - Luton Town	1:2
06.11.24	Luton Town - Cardiff City	1:0
31.01.23	Luton Town - Cardiff City	1:0
30.08.22	Cardiff City - Luton Town	1:2
18.04.22	Cardiff City - Luton Town	0:1
27.11.21	Luton Town - Cardiff City	1:2

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