Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 25

Date: 1 January 2023, Sunday

Location: Home Park (Plymouth)

Referee: Howard P. (Eng)


	Plymouth Argyle		Milton Keynes Dons

	1	X	2
	1.67	4	5
	1.65	3.8	5
	1.65	3.8	5.5
	1.66	3.8	4.7
	1.68	4.01	5.23
	1.67	3.75	5
	1.7	4.05	5	Watch
	1.67	3.85	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.76)	3.88 ↑ (3.51)	5.02 ↑ (4.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plymouth Argyle
56.7%

Draw
24.4%

Milton Keynes Dons
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

26.7%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

26.6%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Milton Keynes Dons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92%	2%	6%

Plymouth Argyle - Milton Keynes Dons Predictions

Users Predictions: Plymouth Argyle will win (46 of 50 users predict this - 92%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.48% – 99.52%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Plymouth has the most likely position - 1 (26.18%), has project points - 89, has currently - 53, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (46%), has a good chance of promoted (57%), has a chance of win league (26%).

MK Dons has the most likely position - 19 (9.71%), has project points - 51, has currently - 21, has a chance of relegated (27%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 25, importance 49, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Plymouth won 2.

Plymouth in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches MK Dons is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Plymouth is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Plymouth to win the game is with odds 1.69.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Plymouth won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Plymouth won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plymouth Argyle
English League One
29.12.22	Plymouth Argyle - Wycombe Wanderers	1:0 ✺
26.12.22	Cheltenham Town - Plymouth Argyle	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
21.12.22	Plymouth Argyle - AFC Wimbledon	4:3 penalties ✺
English League One
17.12.22	Plymouth Argyle - Morecambe	2:1 ✺
10.12.22	Cambridge United - Plymouth Argyle	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWT
- Milton Keynes Dons
English League One
29.12.22	Peterborough United - Milton Keynes Dons	2:0 ✺
26.12.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Forest Green Rovers	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
20.12.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Leicester City	0:3 ✺
English League One
17.12.22	Portsmouth - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
13.12.22	Bristol Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
15.10.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Plymouth Argyle	1:4
30.04.22	Plymouth Argyle - Milton Keynes Dons	0:5
08.12.21	Milton Keynes Dons - Plymouth Argyle	1:1
16.03.21	Milton Keynes Dons - Plymouth Argyle	2:1
19.12.20	Plymouth Argyle - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0
26.12.17	Milton Keynes Dons - Plymouth Argyle	0:1
09.09.17	Plymouth Argyle - Milton Keynes Dons	0:1

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