The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Plymouth Argyle 65.1%
Draw 20.6%
Morecambe 14.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
61.5%
22.3%
16.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.3%
13.2%
27.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)
Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (-28.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Plymouth Argyle that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+13.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Morecambe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
91.3%
4.3%
4.3%
Plymouth Argyle - Morecambe Predictions
Users Predictions:
Plymouth Argyle will win
(21 of 23 users predict this - 91.3%). Confidence interval (95%): 79.78% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Preview
This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).
Plymouth has the most likely position - 2 (19.66%), has project points - 85, has currently - 44, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (52%), has a chance of promoted (45%), has a chance of win league (16%).
Morecambe has the most likely position - 24 (31.7%), has project points - 40, has currently - 15, has a good chance of relegated (76%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has small quality17, importance49, match rating33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Plymouth won 3.
Recent matches Plymouth is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Morecambe is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Morecambe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Plymouth is a favorite.
Last 14 head-to-head matches Plymouth won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 25-11.
Including matches at home between the teams Plymouth won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 16-2.
Watch
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