Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 27

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Sporty TV
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Spain	GolStadium
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.6	2.45	Watch
	2.58	3.6	2.4	Watch
	2.72	3.65	2.54
	2.63	3.7	2.53	Watch
	2.63	3.3	2.4
	2.58	3.71	2.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.52)	3.59 ↑ (3.54)	2.48 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
36%

Draw
26.1%

Lech Poznań
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

26.4%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

26%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	45.5%	36.4%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Lech will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 70. Pelmard A. 27. Wdowik B. 85. Kozlowski E. 86. Mazurek B. 7. Pozo A. 11. Imaz J. (C) 77. Szmyt K. 10. Pululu A.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 72. Skrzypczak M. 16. Milic A. 15. Gurgul M. 8. Gholizadeh A. 43. Kozubal A. 99. Rodriguez P. 14. Bengtsson L. 10. Walemark P. 9. Ishak M. (C)
Substitutes
14. Bazdar S. 66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 8. Drachal D. 4. Kobayashi Y. 21. Lozano S. 23. Montoia G. 19. Nahuel M. 9. Rallis D. 6. Romanczuk T. 17. Sylla Y. 80. Zalewski Z.	7. Agnero Y. 1. Andreev P. (G) 44. Gmur T. 20. Gumny R. 11. Hakans D. 88. Ismaheel T. 4. Moutinho J. 6. Ouma T. 77. Palma L. 23. Thordarson G.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Milic A. 🟨,
32', Kozlowski E. 🟨,
43', Vital B. 🟨,
45', Siemieniec A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Walemark P. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
64', Rodriguez P. ↓, Thordarson G. ↑,
72', Kozlowski E. ↓, Romanczuk T. ↑,
72', Szmyt K. ↓, Nahuel M. ↑,
84', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
84', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
90+1', Bengtsson L. ↓, Palma L. ↑,
90+4', Pululu A. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 1.

Jagiellonia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lech has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Jagiellonia has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Flach L. (Knee Injury) Jozwiak K. (Groin Injury) Konstantopoulos A. (Health problems) Piekutowski M. (Inactive) Stojinovic D. (Injury)

There will not play in Lech: Douglas A. (Ribs Injury) Hakans D. (Inactive) Jagiello F. (Injury) Lisman K. (Knee Injury) Murawski R. (Surgery)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:41. (average 1.4:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jagiellonia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.6:1.5).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Lech Poznan: 33.54% Jagiellonia: 3.94%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	21:8	13	22
10	Jagiellonia	9	4	0	5	13:16	-3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Jagiellonia Białystok - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.97%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Wisła Płock	1:2 ✺
17.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - GKS Katowice	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Piast Gliwice	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWLLT
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.03.26	Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.03.26	Widzew Łódź - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2
16.03.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań	2:1
14.09.24	Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	5:0
17.02.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań	1:2
24.10.23	Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:3
27.05.23	Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:0
12.11.22	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań	1:2

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