Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 18

Date: 5 December 2022, Monday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Referee: Monescillo D. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport


	Ponferradina		Burgos

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.9	3.3	Watch
	2.45	2.87	2.9
	2.6	2.88	3
	2.49	2.9	3
	2.59	2.94	3.27
	2.5	2.9	3.1	Watch
	2.51	2.96	3.08	Watch
	2.55	2.85	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.85)	2.9 ↑ (2.8)	3.09 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
37.2%

Draw
32.4%

Burgos
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

33%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

32.3%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ponferradina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.3%	45.9%	29.7%

Ponferradina - Burgos Predictions

Users Predictions: 74 users predict this event. Ponferradina will win (votes: 18 - 24.3%). Burgos will win (votes: 22 - 29.7%). It will Tie (votes: 34 - 45.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 34.5% – 57.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Ponferradina has the most likely position - 21 (12.25%), has project points - 46, has currently - 17, has a chance of relegated (44%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Burgos has the most likely position - 6 (8.32%), has project points - 63, has currently - 31, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (31%), has a chance of promoted (17%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).

This event has small quality 29, importance 40, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 2.

Ponferradina is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Burgos is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Ponferradina won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish LaLiga2
26.11.22	Málaga - Ponferradina	1:0 ✺
19.11.22	Ponferradina - Real Oviedo	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
12.11.22	CD Guadalajara - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
05.11.22	Leganés - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
01.11.22	Ponferradina - Huesca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTLLW
- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
27.11.22	Burgos - Zaragoza	2:2 ✺
20.11.22	Racing Santander - Burgos	0:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.11.22	Recreativo Huelva - Burgos	0:1 penalties ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
05.11.22	Burgos - Tenerife	0:1 ✺
01.11.22	Las Palmas - Burgos	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
06.08.22	Burgos - Ponferradina	0:0
Spanish LaLiga2
07.05.22	Ponferradina - Burgos	3:1
14.11.21	Burgos - Ponferradina	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
13.01.19	Burgos - Ponferradina	2:0
25.08.18	Ponferradina - Burgos	2:0
16.04.17	Ponferradina - Burgos	4:2
20.11.16	Burgos - Ponferradina	0:0

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