The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ponferradina 27%
Draw 30.3%
Málaga 42.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.1%
31.4%
26.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.8%
31.2%
26.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponferradina's form might have worsened.
Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Málaga's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+14.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponferradina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-16%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Málaga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
15.8%
26.3%
57.9%
Ponferradina - Málaga Predictions
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Ponferradina will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Málaga will win (votes: 11 - 57.9%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 35.7% – 80.1%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 19 in the zone Relegation).
Ponferradina has the most likely position - 20 (90.67%), project points - 40, currently - 36, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of prom. playoffs.
Málaga has the most likely position - 19 (75.94%), project points - 46, currently - 40, a good chance of relegated (84%), not chance of prom. playoffs.
This event has small quality28, small importance28, small match rating28. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 2.
Ponferradina is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Málaga is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Ponferradina could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Málaga will have a mini benefit in this match.
Last 7 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-3.
Including matches at home between the teams Ponferradina won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-1.
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