Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 7

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Figueiredo Comesana J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	16:30	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Ponferradina		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.10	3.90
	1.82	3.10	3.90
	1.85	3.25	3.75
	1.95	3.19	4.49
	1.8	3.58	4.29	Watch
	1.86	3.00	4.40
	1.93	3.26	4.10
	1.87	3.20	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.84)	3.21 ↓ (3.46)	4.1 ↑ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
49.1%

Draw
28.5%

Real Avilés
22.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.4%

26.8%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

25.9%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Ponferradina - Real Avilés Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dominguez A. (G) 24. Koke 2. Andujar D. (C) 4. Jelbat A. 3. Nieto S. 6. San Emeterio F. 10. Valle B. 7. Calderon C. 8. Molina A. 11. Bari Q. 15. Vacas O.	1. Raton A. (G) 21. Sillero J. 4. Artetxe M. 23. Carmona A. 20. Osky 5. Mayo S. 17. Prendes M. 7. Montes C. 10. Neskes 14. Cayarga B. (C) 9. Santamaria A.
Substitutes
25. Abedzadeh A. (G) 14. Aranda J. L. 17. Chibozo J. 18. de Leon J. 21. Faye S. 22. Hernandez E. 19. Munoz P. 23. Roig A. 12. Sabroso U. 9. Slavy 16. Tounkara N. 5. Undabarrena E.	15. Alday I. 6. Doncel P. 24. Franco S. 27. Liduena Alonso D. 2. Mahicas J. 11. Munoz I. 19. Poquet N. 18. Rodriguez Y. 13. Suarez Coronas Lastra M. (G)
Coaches
Nafti M.	Yago Iglesias

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Artetxe M. 🟨,
29', Montes C. 🟨,
33', Andujar D. 🟨,
44', Neskes 🟨,
45+4', Jelbat A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Molina A. ↓, de Leon J. ↑,
46', Andujar D. ↓, Undabarrena E. ↑,
48', Osky ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
52', Valle B. 🟨,
59', Vacas O. ↓, Faye S. ↑,
67', 0 - 1, Santamaria A. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Sillero J. ↓, Alday I. ↑,
68', Neskes ↓, Doncel P. ↑,
69', Koke ↓, Slavy ↑,
79', Santamaria A. ↓, Mahicas J. ↑,
79', Montes C. ↓, Liduena Alonso D. ↑,
84', 0 - 2, Mahicas J. ⚽, Cayarga B. (A),
86', Bari Q. ↓, Munoz P. ↑,
86', Calderon C. 🟨,
90', Artetxe M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 8th and 17th in the Relegation).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Real Avilés could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Ponferradina for this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Ponferradina has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:2 (averaging 1.8:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ponferradina against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:2 goals (averaging 1.3:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Ponferradina	9	3	4	2	6:6	0	13
14	Real Aviles	9	3	2	4	15:13	2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Ponferradina - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.41%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.10.26	Ponferradina - Mirandés	1:0 ✺
27.09.26	Pontevedra - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Ponferradina - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo A Coruña B - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Ponferradina - Lugo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTWLT
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.10.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2 ✺
27.09.26	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	3:3 ✺
19.09.26	Coria - Real Avilés	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Real Avilés - Unionistas de Salamanca	3:1 ✺
06.09.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
01.08.26	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	1:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.05.26	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	3:1
31.08.25	Real Avilés - Ponferradina	0:3
Club Friendly
02.08.23	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	0:0

Ponferradina - Real Avilés