Match Info

Serie B - Round 8

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Ponte Preta		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.1	2.55	Watch
	2.82	2.98	2.58
	3.05	3.1	2.67
	2.88	2.97	2.63	Watch
	2.8	2.8	2.6
	2.84	2.96	2.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.53)	2.99 ↓ (3.16)	2.6 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
32.6%

Draw
31.4%

Sport Recife
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

29.3%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

30.8%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponte Preta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	57.1%	42.9%

Ponte Preta - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Recife (1.99) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 15. Weverton 44. Marcio Silva 14. Danilo Barcelos 2. Lucas Justen 8. Andre Lima 5. Rodrigo Souza (C) 32. Kevyson 7. Diego Tavares 31. Bryan Borges 18. David da Hora	26. Thiago Couto (G) 13. Madson 5. Benevenuto (C) 3. Marcelo Ajul 60. Felipinho 6. Biel Fonseca 58. Ze Lucas 30. Chrystian Barletta 10. de Pena Carlos 25. Clayson 9. Pedro Perotti
Substitutes
26. Baianinho 21. Brandao 33. David Braz 13. Diego Porfirio 10. Elvis 1. Guilherme Viana (G) 35. Gustavo Telles 3. Lucas Cunha 17. Miguel Morais 90. Rodriguinho 38. Tarik 22. Thalys	68. Augusto 96. Edson Lucas 11. Gustavo Maia 28. Habraao 1. Halls (G) 31. Marlon Douglas 8. Max Alves 48. Pedro Martins 7. Yago Felipe 23. Ze Gabriel 4. Ze Marcos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
19', Marcelo Ajul 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Danilo Barcelos ⚽, Diego Tavares (A),
31', 1 - 1, Felipinho ⚽, Chrystian Barletta (A),
45+4', Danilo Barcelos 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 2, Chrystian Barletta (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Bryan Borges 🟨,
59', 1 - 3, Pedro Perotti ⚽, Chrystian Barletta (A),
61', Kevyson ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
61', Rodrigo Souza ↓, Tarik ↑,
63', Rodriguinho 🟨,
67', Biel Fonseca ↓, Pedro Martins ↑,
69', Marcelo Ajul 🟨,
71', Lucas Justen ↓, Elvis ↑,
71', Andre Lima ↓, Thalys ↑,
72', Clayson ↓, Ze Marcos ↑,
72', de Pena Carlos ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
76', Diego Tavares ↓, Baianinho ↑,
79', Felipinho 🟨,
81', Ze Lucas ↓, Yago Felipe ↑,
81', Madson ↓, Augusto ↑,
82', Ze Marcos 🟨,
90+3', Elvis 🟨,
90+4', Marcio Silva 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 1.

In recent matches, Ponte Preta has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Recife is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recife may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Luis Phelipe (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: David Braz (Inactive) David da Hora (Inactive) Elvis (Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto (Inactive)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:28. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.3:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
24.04.26	Ponte Preta - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Avaí - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Ponte Preta - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWWLL
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.05.26	Sport Recife - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
25.04.26	Sport Recife - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	América Mineiro - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.11.24	Ponte Preta - Sport Recife	0:4
27.07.24	Sport Recife - Ponte Preta	3:1
09.10.23	Sport Recife - Ponte Preta	3:3
11.06.23	Ponte Preta - Sport Recife	1:1
07.09.22	Ponte Preta - Sport Recife	1:0
02.06.22	Sport Recife - Ponte Preta	2:1
20.11.19	Sport Recife - Ponte Preta	2:1

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