Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 38

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Ettore Mannucci (Pontedera)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Pontedera		Livorno

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.78	3.2	2.38
	2.81	3.3	2.36
	2.71	3.46	2.33	Watch
	2.7	3	2.3
	2.82	3.34	2.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (3.45)	3.26 ↓ (3.42)	2.36 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontedera
33.1%

Draw
28.1%

Livorno
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

26.9%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

24.1%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontedera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pontedera's performance.

Livorno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Livorno might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Pontedera - Livorno Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Cerretti C. 8. Faggi F. 33. Fancelli A. 3. Leo D. 22. Lugano T. 25. Nabian H. 94. Piana L. 20. Pietrelli R. 28. Raychev A. 13. Sapola M. 11. Teixeira S.	22. Ciobanu N. D. (G) 49. Baldi L. 14. Biondi K. 44. Bonassi L. 13. Di Carmine S. 54. Falasco N. 2. Gentile D. 28. Hamlili Z. 11. Malagrida L. 26. Noce M. 55. Peralta D.
Substitutes
32. Beghetto L. 21. Biagini V. (G) 80. Caponi A. 7. Emmanuello S. 2. Giacomelli R. 14. Manfredonia M. 27. Mbambi J. 18. Paolieri L. 40. Saracco U. (G) 30. Strada N. (G) 17. Vitali P. 26. Wagner G. 45. Yeboah P.	9. Dionisi F. 15. Ghezzi S. 20. Haveri K. 7. Luperini G. 95. Marchesi F. 23. Marinari J. 4. Odjer M. 17. Panaioli L. 12. Seghetti J. (G) 1. Tani F. (G) 29. Tosto L. 19. Vayrynen T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', Malagrida L. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Peralta D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Piana L. ↓, Mbambi J. ↑,
46', Fancelli A. ↓, Beghetto L. ↑,
46', Teixeira S. ↓, Caponi A. ↑,
60', Beghetto L. 🟨,
66', Malagrida L. ↓, Luperini G. ↑,
66', Peralta D. ↓, Marinari J. ↑,
71', 0 - 2, Falasco N. ⚽,
76', Leo D. ↓, Vitali P. ↑,
76', Hamlili Z. ↓, Odjer M. ↑,
76', Di Carmine S. ↓, Dionisi F. ↑,
88', Biondi K. ↓, Marchesi F. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontedera won 2.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Pontedera may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Livorno might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Pontedera won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontedera won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Livorno	8	4	2	2	10:9	1	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Pontedera
Italian Serie C Group B
18.04.26	Sambenedettese - Pontedera	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Pontedera - Ravenna	0:1 ✺
03.04.26	Carpi - Pontedera	2:0 ✺
29.03.26	Pontedera - Bra	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Pianese - Pontedera	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLTT
- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group B
12.04.26	Arezzo - Livorno	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Livorno - Gubbio	3:0 ✺
28.03.26	Sassari Torres - Livorno	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Ravenna - Livorno	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Livorno - Carpi	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
20.12.25	Livorno - Pontedera	2:2
Club Friendly
31.07.24	Pontedera - Livorno	2:1
Italian Serie C Group A
21.03.21	Pontedera - Livorno	1:1
29.11.20	Livorno - Pontedera	0:0
Club Friendly
08.08.18	Pontedera - Livorno	4:0
Italian Serie C Group A
11.02.18	Livorno - Pontedera	0:1
01.10.17	Pontedera - Livorno	2:3

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