Match Info

Cymru South - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Pontypridd United		Aberystwyth Town

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.35	2.38
	2.48	3.32	2.5
	2.58	3.63	2.46	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.45
	2.52	3.96	2.48
	2.47	3.4	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.49)	3.49 ↓ (3.65)	2.44 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontypridd United
36.6%

Draw
26.1%

Aberystwyth Town
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

25.4%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

24.9%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontypridd United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

The chances for Aberystwyth Town have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The ML Model estimate for Pontypridd United aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Pontypridd United - Aberystwyth Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Angel L. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', 0 - 2, Evans T. ⚽,
57', 1 - 2, Bevan J. ⚽,
90+6', 1 - 3, Williams A. ⚽,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 3rd and 2nd).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontypridd won 1.

Pontypridd has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Aberystwyth is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Recently, Aberystwyth has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Pontypridd has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:11 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pontypridd against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 5:3 goals (averaging 1:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Aberystwyth	8	6	1	1	22:8	14	19
3	Pontypridd	9	6	1	2	23:16	7	19

Last Results with these Odds

Aberystwyth Town - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.28%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
25.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Pontypridd United	1:2 ✺
11.09.26	Pontypridd United - Afan Lido	0:1 ✺
28.08.26	Pure Swansea - Pontypridd United	4:4 ✺
21.08.26	Pontypridd United - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Cardiff Draconians - Pontypridd United	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLTWW
- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru South
25.09.26	Aberystwyth Town - Pure Swansea	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
31.08.26	Aberystwyth Town - Llanelli	4:0 ✺
28.08.26	Aberystwyth Town - Pontardawe Town	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Aberystwyth Town - Llantwit Major	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
26.12.25	Pontypridd United - Aberystwyth Town	0:1
16.08.25	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	0:0
Welsh Cymru Premier
21.04.24	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	3:0
09.04.24	Pontypridd United - Aberystwyth Town	0:0
26.12.23	Pontypridd United - Aberystwyth Town	2:0
Welsh League Cup
19.09.23	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	0:1
Welsh Cymru Premier
29.08.23	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	0:1

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