Match Info

USL League One

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Fitzpatrick Stadium (Portland, ME)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Portland Hearts of Pine		Texoma

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.46	4.05	5.5
	1.46	4.59	5.92
	1.56	4.34	4.89	Watch
	1.57	4.18	5.22	Watch
	1.6	3.9	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.61)	4.21 ↑ (3.9)	5.17 ↑ (4.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portland Hearts of Pine
60.3%

Draw
21.9%

Texoma
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

23.2%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

21.6%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portland Hearts of Pine has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Texoma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portland Hearts of Pine than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Texoma than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Portland Hearts of Pine - Texoma Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Morse H. (G) 50. Mohamed M. 7. Vinberg S. 66. Green K. 3. Messer N. 80. Kamara J. 5. Lopez M. (C) 8. Poon-Angeron M. 77. Wada M. 14. Washington T. 10. Wright O.	13. Garcia J. (G) 2. Valentine R. 5. Calfo A. 16. Mason D. 22. Perkins W. 24. Jordan J. 3. Ramos O. (C) 10. Spengler P. 23. Baker T. 8. McCormick L. 7. McManus B.
Substitutes
47. James N. 12. Keegan J. 99. Kvifte N. H. 6. Langlois P. 23. Oladapo K. (G) 22. Varela W. 19. Wright S.	18. Flowers A. 30. Jawneh L. 4. Kilwien P. 1. McCready M. 35. Padilla B. 9. Pepi D. 27. Staszewski P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Messer N. 🟨,
25', Ramos O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Lopez M. 🟨,
59', Washington T. 🟨,
66', Wada M. ↓, James N. ↑,
66', Kamara J. ↓, Varela W. ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Messer N. ⚽, Wright O. (A),
76', Jordan J. ↓, Jawneh L. ↑,
76', Poon-Angeron M. 🟨,
81', Perkins W. 🟨,
83', Poon-Angeron M. ↓, Langlois P. ↑,
83', Wright O. ↓, Keegan J. ↑,
85', Mason D. ↓, Staszewski P. ↑,
90+2', Washington T. ↓, Kvifte N. H. ↑,
90+2', Ramos O. ↓, Padilla B. ↑,
90+3', Morse H. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: ) and 11).

Hearts of Pine has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Texoma's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Texoma may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Texoma has had a series of away games.

In this match, Hearts of Pine is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Hearts of Pine will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Hearts of Pine won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portland Hearts of Pine
USL League One
21.09.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Naples	1:0 ✺
17.09.25	Richmond Kickers - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:5 ✺
13.09.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Chattanooga Red Wolves	1:1 ✺
03.09.25	Greenville Triumph - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:3 ✺
30.08.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Charlotte Independence	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWTWW
- Texoma FC
USL League One
21.09.25	Westchester SC - Texoma	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Texoma - Spokane Velocity	3:3 ✺
06.09.25	Union Omaha - Texoma	5:0 ✺
27.08.25	Forward Madison - Texoma	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Greenville Triumph - Texoma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
12.07.25	Texoma - Portland Hearts of Pine	0:1

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