Match Info

USL League One

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Fitzpatrick Stadium (Portland, ME) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	18:00	Disney+
Brazil	18:00	Disney+
Chile	18:00	Disney+
Colombia	16:00	Disney+
Mexico	15:00	Disney+
Peru	16:00	Disney+
Uruguay	18:00	Disney+
Usa	17:00	ESPN App, ESPN+, MSG 2, NESN Plus
Venezuela	17:00	Disney+


	Portland Hearts of Pine		Charlotte Independence

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.40	3.90	1.73
	2.65	3.65	2.12
	2.78	3.98	2.17
	2.73	4.14	2.17	Watch
	2.75	3.9	2.11
	2.85	4.11	2.11	Watch
	2.65	3.75	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.75)	3.92 ↑ (3.55)	2.08 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portland Hearts of Pine
32.4%

Draw
23.4%

Charlotte Independence
44.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.6%

25.2%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

24.7%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portland Hearts of Pine has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Charlotte Independence has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portland Hearts of Pine than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Charlotte Independence than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Portland Hearts of Pine - Charlotte Independence Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Morse H. (G) 6. Mohamed M. 66. Green K. 22. Evans B. 99. Drack J. 5. Lopez M. (C) 8. Poon-Angeron M. 7. Varela W. 16. Gonzalez D. 98. Kidd M. 9. Camara A.	1. Tasouris G. (G) 17. Dimick C. (C) 22. Riascos K. 21. Nare T. 2. Ngah F. 7. Saydee P. 14. Manin R. 10. Bakero J. 13. Guffroy M. 29. Stefano Pinho 26. Marou S.
Substitutes
18. Barbosa D. 44. Faye S. 24. Felipe 26. Hata E. 11. Kamara J. 4. Letayf D. 23. Oladapo K. (G)	4. Coulibaly S. 8. Jaime C. 99. Kokoska A. (G) 16. Lyons M. 3. Skinner J.
Coaches
Murphy B.	Jeffries M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Manin R. ↓, Lyons M. ↑,
24', Lopez M. 🟨,
34', Ngah F. ↓, Skinner J. ↑,
40', 1 - 0, Camara A. ⚽, Poon-Angeron M. (A),
45', 1 - 1, Skinner J. ⚽, Bakero J. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
53', Lopez M. (Penalty Awarded),
53', 2 - 1, Lopez M. ⚽,
56', Lopez M. ↓, Kamara J. ↑,
69', Poon-Angeron M. ↓, Letayf D. ↑,
69', Varela W. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
81', Barbosa D. 🟨,
82', 3 - 1, Barbosa D. ⚽,
83', Bakero J. 🟨,
90', 4 - 1, Camara A. ⚽, Drack J. (A),
90+2', Evans B. ↓, Faye S. ↑,
90+2', Morse H. ↓, Oladapo K. ↑,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 14th and 1st in the Promotion - USL League One Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

Charlotte Ind is Qualified for USL League One (Play Offs Quarter~finals).

Hearts of Pine is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Charlotte Ind is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Charlotte Ind is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Hearts of Pine has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 7:6 (averaging 2.3:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Hearts of Pine against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:2 goals.

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	32	8	10	14	48:58	-10	34

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portland Hearts of Pine
USL League One
17.10.26	Forward Madison - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Boise	1:2 ✺
03.10.26	Spokane Velocity - Portland Hearts of Pine	3:3 ✺
26.09.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Sarasota Paradise	1:4 ✺
19.09.26	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Portland Hearts of Pine	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLTLT
- Charlotte Independence
USL League One
17.10.26	Greenville Triumph - Charlotte Independence	0:3 ✺
10.10.26	Charlotte Independence - New York Cosmos	3:0 ✺
03.10.26	Sarasota Paradise - Charlotte Independence	2:3 ✺
26.09.26	Charlotte Independence - Fort Wayne	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Richmond Kickers - Charlotte Independence	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
02.09.26	Charlotte Independence - Portland Hearts of Pine	3:2
30.08.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Charlotte Independence	4:2
19.07.25	Charlotte Independence - Portland Hearts of Pine	1:1

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