Match Info

Date: 19 October 2021, Tuesday


	Porto		Milan

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3.3
	2.4	3.4	2.87
	2.23	3.55	3.4
	2.24	3.4	3.25
	2.27	3.49	3.39
	2.35	3.25	3.2
	2.24	3.48	3.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.91)	3.42 ↑ (3.36)	3.26 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
42.3%

Draw
28.1%

Milan
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

28.3%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

20.7%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Porto's performance.

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Milan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-18.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Porto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+23.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Milan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.3%	20.3%	42.4%

Porto - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 118 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 44 - 37.3%). Milan will win (votes: 50 - 42.4%). It will Tie (votes: 24 - 20.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 33.5% – 51.3%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Porto has currently - 1, has a very small chance of 1st (2%), has a chance of 2nd (17%), has a chance of 3rd (44%), has a chance of round of 16 (18%), has a small chance of qtrs (7%), has a very small chance of semis (3%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Milan has currently - 0, has a very small chance of 1st (<1%), has a small chance of 2nd (9%), has a chance of 3rd (32%), has a small chance of round of 16 (10%), has a very small chance of qtrs (4%), has a very small chance of semis (1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Now both teams are in good shape.

Porto could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Porto will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Taça de Portugal
15.10.21	Sintrense - Porto	0:5 ✺
Liga Portugal
02.10.21	Porto - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.09.21	Porto - Liverpool	1:5 ✺
Liga Portugal
24.09.21	Gil Vicente - Porto	1:2 ✺
19.09.21	Porto - Moreirense	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWW
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
16.10.21	Milan - Verona	3:2 ✺
03.10.21	Atalanta - Milan	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.09.21	Milan - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
25.09.21	Spezia - Milan	1:2 ✺
22.09.21	Milan - Venezia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWLWW

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