Match Info

Serie A - Round 9

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo)

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	DAZN France
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kuwait	Shasha
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
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North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN, DAZN UK, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Atalanta		Milan

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.68	3.25	2.72	Watch
	2.77	3.55	2.57
	2.76	3.42	2.52	Watch
	2.73	3.4	2.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (2.75)	3.36 ↓ (3.53)	2.68 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
35.4%

Draw
28.6%

Milan
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

27%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

27.7%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.8%	37.7%	47.5%

Atalanta - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 55 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 8 - 14.5%). Milan will win (votes: 27 - 49.1%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 35.9% – 62.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 1 - 4.3%). Milan (votes: 11 - 47.8%). Tie (votes: 11 - 47.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Atalanta (1.92) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.44) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 5 - 17.9%). Milan (votes: 12 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 11 - 39.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 3. Kossounou O. 4. Hien I. 69. Ahanor H. 77. Zappacosta D. 15. De Roon M. (C) 13. Ederson 47. Bernasconi L. 8. Pasalic M. 17. De Ketelaere C. 11. Lookman A.	16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 56. Saelemaekers A. 19. Fofana Y. 14. Modric L. 4. Ricci S. 33. Bartesaghi D. 7. Gimenez S. 10. Leao R.
Substitutes
16. Bellanova R. 44. Brescianini M. 19. Djimsiti B. 23. Kolasinac S. 90. Krstovic N. 70. Maldini D. 6. Musah Y. 40. Obric R. 31. Rossi F. (G) 10. Samardzic L. 9. Scamacca G. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 7. Sulemana K. 59. Zalewski N.	24. Athekame Z. 5. De Winter K. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 18. Nkunku C. 27. Odogu D. 37. Pittarella M. (G) 1. Terracciano P. (G)
Coaches
Juric I.	Allegri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Ricci S. ⚽,
9', Gimenez S. 🟨,
20', De Roon M. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
35', 1 - 1, Lookman A. ⚽, Pasalic M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Leao R. ↓, Nkunku C. ↑,
62', Gimenez S. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
71', Bernasconi L. ↓, Bellanova R. ↑,
72', Ahanor H. ↓, Djimsiti B. ↑,
77', Modric L. 🟨,
82', Pasalic M. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
82', De Ketelaere C. ↓, Samardzic L. ↑,
90', Saelemaekers A. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
90+3', Brescianini M. 🟨,
90+3', Gabbia M. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 4.

Atalanta has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Milan is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atalanta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury) Kolasinac S. (Knee Injury) Scalvini G. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Estupinan P. (Ankle Injury) Jashari A. (Calf Injury) Pulisic C. (Thigh Injury) Rabiot A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:24. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Atalanta won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:15. (average 1.8:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
25.10.25	Cremonese - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Atalanta - Slavia Prague	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
19.10.25	Atalanta - Lazio	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Atalanta - Como	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Atalanta - Club Brugge	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 TTTTW
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
24.10.25	Milan - Pisa	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Juventus - Milan	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Milan - Napoli	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
23.09.25	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
20.04.25	Milan - Atalanta	0:1
06.12.24	Atalanta - Milan	2:1
25.02.24	Milan - Atalanta	1:1
Coppa Italia
10.01.24	Milan - Atalanta	1:2
Italian Serie A
09.12.23	Atalanta - Milan	3:2
26.02.23	Milan - Atalanta	2:0
21.08.22	Atalanta - Milan	1:1

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