Match Info

Serie A - Round 9

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	20:45	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	16:45	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	23:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	06:45	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	20:45	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Brazil	16:45	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	21:45	Max Sport 3
Canada	15:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN
Chile	16:45	Disney+
China	03:45	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:45	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	20:45	Sport 1
Denmark	20:45	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	21:45	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	20:45	DAZN France
Germany	20:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	21:45	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	03:45	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	20:45	Arena 4
Indonesia	02:45	Vidio
Israel	21:45	Sport 4
Italy	20:45	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	04:45	DAZN Japan
Kuwait	22:45	Shasha
Mexico	13:45	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	20:45	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	08:45	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	20:45	VG+
Peru	14:45	Disney+
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	19:45	Sport TV2
Romania	21:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Saudi Arabia	22:45	STC TV
Slovakia	20:45	Sport 1
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 1
South America	—	ESPN 2 South
South Korea	04:45	SPOTV Now
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Suriname	16:45	SCCN
Sweden	20:45	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	22:45	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	19:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN, DAZN UK, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	16:45	Disney+
Usa	15:45	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	15:45	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Atalanta		Milan

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.68	3.25	2.72	Watch
	2.77	3.55	2.57
	2.76	3.42	2.52	Watch
	2.73	3.4	2.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (2.75)	3.36 ↓ (3.53)	2.68 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
35.4%

Draw
28.6%

Milan
36%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.7%

27%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

27.7%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.8%	37.7%	47.5%

Atalanta - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 55 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 8 - 14.5%). Milan will win (votes: 27 - 49.1%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 35.9% – 62.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 1 - 4.3%). Milan (votes: 11 - 47.8%). Tie (votes: 11 - 47.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Atalanta (1.92) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.44) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 5 - 17.9%). Milan (votes: 12 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 11 - 39.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 3. Kossounou O. 4. Hien I. 69. Ahanor H. 77. Zappacosta D. 15. De Roon M. (C) 13. Ederson 47. Bernasconi L. 8. Pasalic M. 17. De Ketelaere C. 11. Lookman A.	16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 56. Saelemaekers A. 19. Fofana Y. 14. Modric L. 4. Ricci S. 33. Bartesaghi D. 7. Gimenez S. 10. Leao R.
Substitutes
16. Bellanova R. 44. Brescianini M. 19. Djimsiti B. 23. Kolasinac S. 90. Krstovic N. 70. Maldini D. 6. Musah Y. 40. Obric R. 31. Rossi F. (G) 10. Samardzic L. 9. Scamacca G. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 7. Sulemana K. 59. Zalewski N.	24. Athekame Z. 5. De Winter K. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 18. Nkunku C. 27. Odogu D. 37. Pittarella M. (G) 1. Terracciano P. (G)
Coaches
Juric I.	Allegri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Ricci S. ⚽,
9', Gimenez S. 🟨,
20', De Roon M. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
35', 1 - 1, Lookman A. ⚽, Pasalic M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Leao R. ↓, Nkunku C. ↑,
62', Gimenez S. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
71', Bernasconi L. ↓, Bellanova R. ↑,
72', Ahanor H. ↓, Djimsiti B. ↑,
77', Modric L. 🟨,
82', Pasalic M. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
82', De Ketelaere C. ↓, Samardzic L. ↑,
90', Saelemaekers A. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
90+3', Brescianini M. 🟨,
90+3', Gabbia M. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 4.

Atalanta has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Milan is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atalanta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury) Kolasinac S. (Knee Injury) Scalvini G. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Estupinan P. (Ankle Injury) Jashari A. (Calf Injury) Pulisic C. (Thigh Injury) Rabiot A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:24. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Atalanta won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:15. (average 1.8:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
25.10.25	Cremonese - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Atalanta - Slavia Prague	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
19.10.25	Atalanta - Lazio	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Atalanta - Como	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Atalanta - Club Brugge	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 TTTTW
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
24.10.25	Milan - Pisa	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Juventus - Milan	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Milan - Napoli	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
23.09.25	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
20.04.25	Milan - Atalanta	0:1
06.12.24	Atalanta - Milan	2:1
25.02.24	Milan - Atalanta	1:1
Coppa Italia
10.01.24	Milan - Atalanta	1:2
Italian Serie A
09.12.23	Atalanta - Milan	3:2
26.02.23	Milan - Atalanta	2:0
21.08.22	Atalanta - Milan	1:1

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