Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 20 October 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Porto		PSV Eindhoven

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.6	5.75
	1.53	4.40	5.50
	1.52	4.75	5.65
	1.56	4.8	5.93
	1.53	4.59	5.7	Watch
	1.51	4.55	5.85
	1.57	4.78	5.9
	1.52	4.7	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.73)	4.65 ↑ (4.28)	5.74 ↑ (4.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
62.7%

Draw
20.6%

PSV Eindhoven
16.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.9%

22.2%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

21.7%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Porto's performance.

PSV Eindhoven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and PSV Eindhoven might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Porto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that PSV Eindhoven could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	5.3%	5.3%

Porto - PSV Eindhoven Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (2.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (33 of 37 users predict this - 89.19%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.18% – 99.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Porto is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by PSV have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Porto could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Porto has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this matchup, Porto is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Porto: Gabriel Mec (Off the roster) Prpic D. (Off the roster) Sousa V. (Leg Injury) William Gomes (Ankle Injury).

Confirmed absences for PSV: Nagalo A. (Injury) Plea A. (Surgery) Schouten J. (Knee Injury) Sildillia K. (Surgery) Wanner P. (Foot Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for PSV: Lammers S. (Lacking Match Fitness) Pepi R. (Injury) Til G. (Head Injury).

Our forecast points to a victory for Porto in today's match, at odds of 1.57.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Porto has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:3.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
26	PSV	2	0	1	1	1:2	-1	1
30	FC Porto	2	0	0	2	2:5	-3	0

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

FC Porto: 0.68% PSV: 0.4%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
UEFA Champions League
14.10.26	Betis - Porto	3:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
10.10.26	Marítimo - Porto	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Porto	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
20.09.26	Porto - Benfica	3:1 ✺
12.09.26	Casa Pia - Porto	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWWWW
- PSV Eindhoven
Dutch Eredivisie
17.10.26	ADO Den Haag - PSV Eindhoven	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.10.26	RB Leipzig - PSV Eindhoven	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
09.10.26	PSV Eindhoven - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Twente - PSV Eindhoven	3:2 ✺
13.09.26	PSV Eindhoven - Sparta Rotterdam	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
21.07.16	PSV Eindhoven - Porto	3:0

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