Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 19

Date: 26 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes (Vila Nova de Gaia)

Referee: Shirzad H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Porto Canal


	Porto B		Tondela

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.25	2.1
	3.4	3	2
	3.6	3.2	2.1
	3.78	3.24	2.13
	3.68	3.12	2.11	Watch
	3.5	3	2.05
	3.56	3.26	2.08
	3.6	3.2	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.6 ↑ (3.25)	3.16 ↓ (3.25)	2.08 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto B
25.8%

Draw
29.5%

Tondela
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto B than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	53.3%	46.7%

Porto B - Tondela Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 53.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Ribeiro G. (G) 76. Rodrigues D. 54. Ribeiro A. (C) 44. Felipe Silva 80. Henrique Kaio 62. Fernandes R. 68. Oliveira A. 98. Abraham M. 92. Teixeira J. 59. Andrade T. 43. Melnichenko T.	31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto 5. Afonso J. 34. Alves R. (C) 48. Manso T. 8. Tavares H. 97. Cicero 18. Talocha 21. Maranhao 17. Roberto 11. Costinha
Substitutes
87. Caicedo B. 95. Cande A. 2. Castro 84. Cunha M. 51. Fernandes D. (G) 64. Gomes L. 90. Pinto Martins G. 49. Sousa G. 79. Vonic L.	23. Cascavel 6. Ceitil A. 26. Cunha N. 60. Maviram E. 9. Miro 4. Pola J. 30. Ramos R. 1. Souza G. (G) 7. Xavier
Coaches
Brandao J.	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', Afonso J. 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Felipe Silva ⚽, Abraham M. (A),
25', 1 - 1, Rodrigues D. (Own goal),
36', 1 - 2, Bebeto ⚽, Talocha (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Fernandes R. ↓, Vonic L. ↑,
57', 2 - 2, Vonic L. ⚽, Melnichenko T. (A),
59', Cicero ↓, Ceitil A. ↑,
62', Henrique Kaio 🟨,
73', Costinha ↓, Xavier ↑,
73', Manso T. ↓, Miro ↑,
82', Roberto ↓, Cascavel ↑,
82', Talocha ↓, Maviram E. ↑,
83', Teixeira J. ↓, Castro ↑,
84', Abraham M. ↓, Sousa G. ↑,
90+3', Rodrigues D. ↓, Gomes L. ↑,
90+3', Melnichenko T. ↓, Pinto Martins G. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Porto B won 1.

Porto B has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Tondela is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Tondela could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Tondela will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Porto B won 2 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:11 (average 1.1:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Porto B won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:3 (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Porto B
Portuguese Liga 2
18.01.25	Alverca - Porto B	2:0 ✺
12.01.25	Porto B - Portimonense	1:2 ✺
06.01.25	Benfica B - Porto B	2:1 ✺
21.12.24	Vizela - Porto B	2:1 ✺
15.12.24	Porto B - Feirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLT
- CD Tondela
Portuguese Liga 2
19.01.25	Tondela - Marítimo	0:0 ✺
12.01.25	Alverca - Tondela	1:1 ✺
04.01.25	Tondela - Leiria	1:4 ✺
21.12.24	Chaves - Tondela	2:2 ✺
15.12.24	Tondela - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
19.08.24	Tondela - Porto B	2:2
21.01.24	Tondela - Porto B	0:0
13.08.23	Porto B - Tondela	1:1
22.05.23	Tondela - Porto B	0:1
15.01.23	Porto B - Tondela	1:1
04.04.15	Tondela - Porto B	3:1
05.11.14	Porto B - Tondela	1:1

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