Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Tondela		Leiria

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.6
	1.95	3	3.6
	2	3.25	3.75	Watch
	2.02	3.24	3.74	Watch
	2	3.1	3.7
	1.96	3.34	3.91	Watch
	2	3.25	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.12)	3.21 ↓ (3.31)	3.72 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
46.5%

Draw
28.7%

Leiria
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

28.2%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

27.8%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Leiria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Tondela - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Leiria will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tondela: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto 34. Alves R. (C) 5. Afonso J. 60. Maviram E. 48. Manso T. 97. Cicero 26. Cunha N. 11. Costinha 9. Miro 17. Roberto	1. Kieszek P. (C) 52. Sylla H. 4. Bura 23. Ferreira T. 3. Baro M. 18. Crystopher 28. Singh S. 10. van der Gaag J. 7. Ryan Guilherme 27. Alisson Santos 26. Resende J.
Substitutes
23. Cascavel 6. Ceitil A. 20. Fuller T. 4. Pola J. 30. Ramos R. 1. Souza G. (G) 18. Talocha 3. Tavares D. 7. Xavier	25. Amado D. 77. Branco Ribeiro M. 29. Ferreira F. (G) 15. Kaka 58. Monteiro D. 9. Munoz J. 37. Nabian H. 5. Rofino V. G. 14. Ze Vitor
Coaches
Pinto L.	Silas

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Alisson Santos ⚽, van der Gaag J. (A),
27', Baro M. 🟨,
31', 0 - 2, Singh S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Miro ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
62', 0 - 3, Singh S. ⚽, Resende J. (A),
66', Cunha N. ↓, Cascavel ↑,
66', Maviram E. ↓, Talocha ↑,
73', Resende J. ↓, Rofino V. G. ↑,
73', Baro M. ↓, Kaka ↑,
75', Costinha ↓, Xavier ↑,
75', Roberto ↓, Fuller T. ↑,
84', 1 - 3, Ramos R. (Pen),
85', van der Gaag J. ↓, Ze Vitor ↑,
85', Alisson Santos ↓, Amado D. ↑,
85', Ryan Guilherme ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 4, Munoz J. ⚽,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal and 9).

Tondela is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Leiria is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Tondela will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Tondela won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1.8:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Tondela won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Portuguese Liga 2
21.12.24	Chaves - Tondela	2:2 ✺
15.12.24	Tondela - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
08.12.24	Vizela - Tondela	1:1 ✺
01.12.24	Tondela - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
09.11.24	Feirense - Tondela	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWTWT
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
22.12.24	Oliveirense - Leiria	1:2 ✺
14.12.24	Leiria - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
07.12.24	Benfica B - Leiria	0:5 ✺
30.11.24	Leiria - Feirense	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Leiria	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
02.08.24	Leiria - Tondela	2:1
Portuguese Liga 2
24.02.24	Tondela - Leiria	1:1
01.10.23	Leiria - Tondela	2:2
Taça de Portugal
20.10.13	Leiria - Tondela	1:3 ET

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