Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio do Caninde (Sao Paulo)


	Portuguesa		Náutico Marcílio Dias

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.30	5.75
	1.46	3.65	6.5
	1.43	3.73	6.71
	1.57	3.56	5.93	Watch
	1.41	3.6	5.7
	1.4	4.13	8.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.6)	3.66 ↑ (3.18)	6.57 ↑ (5.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portuguesa
61.5%

Draw
24.7%

Náutico Marcílio Dias
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

28.2%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

26.8%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portuguesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portuguesa's performance.

Náutico Marcílio Dias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portuguesa than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Portuguesa - Náutico Marcílio Dias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Lucas Hipolito ⚽,
35', 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
69', 2 - 0, Igor Torres ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

Portuguesa is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Marcílio Dias has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Portuguesa is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Portuguesa will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Portuguesa won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portuguesa SP
Brazilian Serie D
04.07.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Portuguesa	1:1 ✺
27.06.26	Portuguesa - Sampaio Corrêa FE	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Portuguesa	1:1 ✺
06.06.26	Portuguesa - Portuguesa RJ	2:0 ✺
30.05.26	Pouso Alegre - Portuguesa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWTWW
- Náutico Marcílio Dias
Brazilian Serie D
04.07.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Portuguesa	1:1 ✺
28.06.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - FC Cascavel	2:1 ✺
21.06.26	FC Cascavel - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:2 ✺
07.06.26	São-Joseense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:0 ✺
01.06.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Azuriz	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
04.07.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Portuguesa	1:1

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