Match Info

Mineiro - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Do Manduzao (Pouso Alegre)

Referee: Policarpo Bento A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Premiere, Sky+, Zapping


	Pouso Alegre		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
				Watch
	7.9	4.35	1.36	Watch
	9.02	4.15	1.48
	8.64	3.71	1.43	Watch
	8.5	4	1.33
	8.25	4.62	1.37	Watch
	10	3.6	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.72 ↑ (7.58)	4.07 ↓ (4.3)	1.4 ↑ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pouso Alegre
10.7%

Draw
22.8%

Cruzeiro
66.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12%

21.2%

66.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.5%

20.3%

69.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pouso Alegre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pouso Alegre than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Pouso Alegre - Cruzeiro Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago Braga (G) 3. Victao 2. Da Silva 4. Xandao (C) 6. Nunes Oliveira M. 5. Mage 7. Caua de Aguiar Alves M. 20. Romario 8. Alexandre Pena 11. Rubim T. 10. Gabriel Tota	1. Cassio (G) 12. William Furtado 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 16. Lucas Silva (C) 29. Romero L. 88. Christian 10. Matheus Pereira 11. Gerson 22. Villarreal N.
Substitutes
22. Biel 18. De Paula 13. Diego Porfirio 16. Enzo 25. Guilherme Buscarioli 27. Jhonatan Kauan 12. Natan (G) 9. Nathan Palafoz 19. Pedro Arthur 29. Pedro Balotelli 15. Ryan 26. Samuel	44. Bruno Alves 20. Bruno Rodrigues 23. Fagner 33. Janderson 77. Japa 43. Joao Marcelo 36. Kaua Prates 70. Kenji 81. Otavio Costa (G) 27. Vitinho 5. Walace 94. Wanderson
Coaches
Danilo	Tite

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Xandao 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Caua de Aguiar Alves M. ↓, Jhonatan Kauan ↑,
62', Villarreal N. ↓, Bruno Rodrigues ↑,
63', Rubim T. ↓, Diego Porfirio ↑,
64', 0 - 1, Lucas Silva ⚽,
75', 0 - 2, Bruno Rodrigues ⚽,
76', Nunes Oliveira M. ↓, De Paula ↑,
76', Alexandre Pena ↓, Pedro Arthur ↑,
79', Villalba L. 🟨,
79', Mage 🟨,
89', 1 - 2, Romario (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', Romario 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Recent performances by Pouso Alegre have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cruzeiro is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Pouso Alegre may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cruzeiro is the obvious favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pouso Alegre won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Pouso Alegre won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pouso Alegre FC
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
14.02.26	Uberlândia - Pouso Alegre	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Pouso Alegre - Democrata GV	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Pouso Alegre - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
24.01.26	North Esporte Clube - Pouso Alegre	5:2 ✺
21.01.26	Pouso Alegre - Athletic Club	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLLL
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
14.02.26	URT - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Mirassol - Cruzeiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
08.02.26	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Cruzeiro - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
01.02.26	Betim - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
10.01.26	Cruzeiro - Pouso Alegre	1:2
25.02.24	Pouso Alegre - Cruzeiro	0:2
07.02.23	Cruzeiro - Pouso Alegre	0:1
13.03.22	Cruzeiro - Pouso Alegre	5:1
18.04.21	Pouso Alegre - Cruzeiro	1:0

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