Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 3

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Usa	Fanatiz


	Mirassol		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	3.2	Watch
	2.4	3.2	3
	2.42	3.05	2.98	Watch
	2.48	3.19	3.21
	2.45	3.16	3.1	Watch
	2.4	2.9	3
	2.5	3.07	3.27	Watch
	2.37	3.14	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.34)	3.09 ↓ (3.18)	3.12 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
39%

Draw
30.7%

Cruzeiro
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

29%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

28.9%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Mirassol - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Mirassol (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Mirassol (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo (C) 25. Neto Moura 21. Jose Aldo 11. Negueba 33. Eduardo 77. Alesson 9. Nathan Fogaca	1. Cassio (G) 23. Fagner 15. Fabricio Bruno 43. Joao Marcelo 6. Kaiki 29. Romero L. (C) 88. Christian 11. Gerson 10. Matheus Pereira 94. Wanderson 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
23. Alex Muralha (G) 96. Carlos Eduardo 10. Chico Kim 8. Denilson 17. Everton Galdino 27. Galeano A. 14. Igor Carius 26. Lucas Mugni 2. Lucas Oliveira 70. Rodrigo Rodrigues 97. Rodrigues 5. Yuri Lara	44. Bruno Alves 77. Japa 36. Kaua Prates 70. Kenji 57. Lelis R. 16. Lucas Silva 8. Matheus Henrique 81. Otavio Costa (G) 17. Sinisterra L. 25. Villalba L. 22. Villarreal N. 12. William
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Tite

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Wanderson ⚽, Romero L. (A),
25', Neto Moura 🟨,
26', Reinaldo 🟨,
30', Jose Aldo 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Nathan Fogaca ⚽,
45+1', Gerson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gerson ↓, Matheus Henrique ↑,
46', Wanderson ↓, Sinisterra L. ↑,
53', 2 - 1, Negueba ⚽,
55', Igor Formiga ↓, Igor Carius ↑,
61', Alex Muralha 🟨,
64', Romero L. ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
65', Alesson ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
65', Neto Moura ↓, Yuri Lara ↑,
70', Eduardo ↓, Galeano A. ↑,
71', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
79', Fagner ↓, William ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Kaio Jorge (Penalty Awarded),
89', Christian ↓, Kenji ↑,
90+5', Yuri Lara 🟥,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Mirassol: Andre Luis (Inactive) Edson Carioca (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Chico (Injury) Jonathan Jesus (Inactive) Marquinhos (Knee Injury) Matheus Cunha (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Daniel Borges (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Mirassol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Last Results with these Odds

Cruzeiro - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 31.59%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Capivariano - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Remo - Mirassol	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.02.26	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.01.26	Mirassol - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.01.26	São Bernardo - Mirassol	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTTWW
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
08.02.26	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Cruzeiro - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
01.02.26	Betim - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Cruzeiro	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
25.01.26	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
18.08.25	Mirassol - Cruzeiro	1:1
29.03.25	Cruzeiro - Mirassol	2:1

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