Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 26

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Carlo Speroni (Busto Arsizio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Pro Patria		Cittadella

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.05	3.2	1.88	Watch
	4.47	3.32	1.86
	4.32	3.28	1.82	Watch
	4	3	1.83
	4.08	3.4	1.89	Watch
	4.33	3.4	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.21 ↑ (3.66)	3.27 ↑ (3.21)	1.85 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Pro Patria
21.9%

Draw
28.2%

Cittadella
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

28.6%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

26.4%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pro Patria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Cittadella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pro Patria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cittadella than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cittadella, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Pro Patria - Cittadella Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cittadella (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Cittadella (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cittadella will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cittadella (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Sala A. (G) 20. Mora C. 26. Masi A. 39. Motolese M. 19. Travaglini C. 40. Schiro T. 25. Ferri D. 23. Frosali J. 11. Renelus B. 9. Udoh K. 70. Desogus J.	23. Saro G. (G) 40. Gobbato M. 28. Rizza A. 36. Zilio A. 19. D'Alessio F. 8. Amatucci F. (C) 5. Barberis A. 7. Anastasia E. 32. Ghezzi A. 99. Castelli D. 91. Falcinelli D.
Substitutes
15. Auci A. 14. Citterio G. 31. Felicioli G. 27. Giudici L. 10. Mastroianni F. 7. Orfei A. 33. Pogliano C. 1. Rovida W. (G) 6. Sassaro A. 8. Schiavone A. 22. Zamarian M. (G)	90. Bunino C. 10. Casolari F. 14. Crialese C. 44. Gatti R. 77. Ignatov E. 1. Maniero L. (G) 17. Perretta G. 21. Rabbi S. 55. Redolfi A. 22. Scquizzato E. (G) 27. Stronati R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Desogus J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Udoh K. ⚽,
63', Castelli D. ↓, Rabbi S. ↑,
63', Rizza A. ↓, Perretta G. ↑,
65', Frosali J. ↓, Citterio G. ↑,
65', Renelus B. ↓, Orfei A. ↑,
68', D'Alessio F. 🟨,
69', Ferri D. 🟨,
69', Barberis A. ↓, Stronati R. ↑,
71', Schiro T. 🟨,
78', Masi A. 🟨,
80', Udoh K. ↓, Mastroianni F. ↑,
80', Desogus J. ↓, Giudici L. ↑,
83', Falcinelli D. ↓, Bunino C. ↑,
83', Ghezzi A. ↓, Ignatov E. ↑,
88', Mora C. ↓, Sassaro A. ↑,
90+3', Amatucci F. 🟨,
90+4', Travaglini C. 🟨,
90+8', Zilio A. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

Pro Patria has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cittadella's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cittadella may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cittadella is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Pro Patria won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Pro Patria won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Cittadella	9	8	0	1	16:4	12	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
08.02.26	AlbinoLeffe - Pro Patria	2:2 ✺
01.02.26	Pro Patria - Vicenza Virtus	0:4 ✺
25.01.26	Novara - Pro Patria	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Pro Patria - Giana Erminio	0:4 ✺
10.01.26	Pro Patria - Inter U23	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLLLL
- AS Cittadella
Italian Serie C Group A
07.02.26	Lumezzane - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Cittadella - AlbinoLeffe	0:1 ✺
26.01.26	Vicenza Virtus - Cittadella	4:1 ✺
17.01.26	Cittadella - Pergolettese	3:3 ✺
11.01.26	Alcione - Cittadella	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
29.09.25	Cittadella - Pro Patria	0:0
23.01.16	Cittadella - Pro Patria	2:1
14.10.15	Pro Patria - Cittadella	1:3

Upcoming Matches