Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 22

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Carlo Speroni (Busto Arsizio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Pro Patria		Giana Erminio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.15	2.98	2.28
	3.34	2.9	2.26	Watch
	3.2	2.7	2.25
	3.4	2.77	2.24	Watch
	3.33	2.9	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↑ (2.78)	2.85 ↓ (3.13)	2.27 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pro Patria
27.8%

Draw
32%

Giana Erminio
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

29.4%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

28.2%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pro Patria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pro Patria's form might have worsened.

Giana Erminio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pro Patria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Giana Erminio than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Pro Patria - Giana Erminio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rovida W. (G) 19. Travaglini C. 26. Masi A. 33. Pogliano C. 20. Mora C. 25. Ferri D. 40. Schiro T. 70. Desogus J. 7. Orfei A. 9. Udoh K. 10. Mastroianni F.	22. Mazza A. (G) 26. Previtali N. 6. Ferri L. 19. Duca T. 90. Vitale V. 20. Renda F. 14. Marotta M. 7. Pinto D. 24. Ruffini L. 97. Gabbiani G. 29. Samele L.
Substitutes
13. Aliata T. 15. Auci A. 14. Citterio G. 93. Dimarco C. 18. Galantatucci C. 56. Ganz S. 27. Giudici L. 39. Motolese M. 4. Reggiori P. 21. Ricordi T. 8. Schiavone A. 22. Zamarian M. (G)	32. Azzolari E. 5. Berretta A. 13. Colombara M. 11. Galeandro A. 37. Lischetti L. 8. Nelli J. 3. Nucifero T. 23. Occhipinti E. 16. Rizzo A. 1. Zenti A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Renda F. ⚽,
27', Udoh K. 🟨,
38', Masi A. 🟨,
39', Vitale V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Vitale V. ↓, Colombara M. ↑,
46', Gabbiani G. ↓, Galeandro A. ↑,
63', Colombara M. 🟨,
71', Mora C. ↓, Giudici L. ↑,
71', Udoh K. ↓, Ganz S. ↑,
75', 0 - 2, Colombara M. ⚽,
77', Duca T. ↓, Nucifero T. ↑,
80', Schiro T. ↓, Schiavone A. ↑,
80', Pogliano C. ↓, Dimarco C. ↑,
82', Renda F. ↓, Rizzo A. ↑,
85', 0 - 3, Colombara M. ⚽,
86', 🟨,
87', Orfei A. ↓, Citterio G. ↑,
87', Samele L. ↓, Lischetti L. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 4, Ferri L. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pro Patria won 1.

Pro Patria has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Giana Erminio has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Giana Erminio might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Pro Patria won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:17. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pro Patria won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1.3:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	Giana Erminio	8	0	4	4	6:10	-4	4

Last Results with these Odds

Giana Erminio - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.54%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
10.01.26	Pro Patria - Inter U23	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Pro Vercelli - Pro Patria	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Pro Patria - Renate	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Pro Patria	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Pro Patria - Dolomiti Bellunesi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- AS Giana Erminio
Italian Serie C Group A
10.01.26	Giana Erminio - Renate	0:1 ✺
03.01.26	Trento - Giana Erminio	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Giana Erminio - Cittadella	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	Inter U23 - Giana Erminio	0:1 ✺
08.12.25	Giana Erminio - Triestina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
07.09.25	Giana Erminio - Pro Patria	2:1
06.01.25	Pro Patria - Giana Erminio	1:2
31.08.24	Giana Erminio - Pro Patria	1:1
06.01.24	Giana Erminio - Pro Patria	1:2
03.09.23	Pro Patria - Giana Erminio	1:2
13.03.22	Pro Patria - Giana Erminio	5:1
31.10.21	Giana Erminio - Pro Patria	1:1

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