Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 23

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Silvio Piola (Novara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256


	Novara		Pro Patria

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.7	3.2	4.6
	1.62	3.55	5.15	Watch
	1.7	3.46	5.09
	1.67	3.47	4.96	Watch
	1.67	3.1	4.8
	1.68	3.28	4.96	Watch
	1.68	3.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.65)	3.37 ↓ (3.4)	4.94 ↓ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novara
54.4%

Draw
27.1%

Pro Patria
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

26.9%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

19.3%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Pro Patria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novara than the current prediction. (-14.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Novara that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pro Patria could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Novara - Pro Patria Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Novara (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Novara will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Boseggia E. (G) 71. D'Alessio L. 28. Cannavaro A. (C) 15. Khailoti O. 17. Dell'Erba D. 19. Collodel R. 99. Basso G. 36. Arboscello R. 11. Ledonne N. 9. Alberti T. 7. Lanini E.	1. Rovida W. (G) 33. Pogliano C. 39. Motolese M. 19. Travaglini C. 6. Sassaro A. 25. Ferri D. 5. Di Munno A. 17. Tunjov G. 70. Desogus J. 10. Mastroianni F. 9. Udoh K.
Substitutes
72. Agyemang G. 6. Citi A. 65. Cortese A. 27. Deseri G. 10. Donadio C. 3. Lartey S. 4. Malaspina M. 23. Morosini L. 90. Perini G. 61. Raffaelli M. (G) 21. Ranieri R. 12. Rossetti M. (G)	13. Aliata T. 14. Citterio G. 93. Dimarco C. 23. Frosali J. 56. Ganz S. 27. Giudici L. 12. Gnonto R. (G) 26. Masi A. 20. Mora C. 7. Orfei A. 21. Ricordi T. 8. Schiavone A. 40. Schiro T. 22. Zamarian M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', Sassaro A. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Alberti T. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 0, Lanini E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Travaglini C. ↓, Dimarco C. ↑,
53', 3 - 0, Lanini E. ⚽,
57', Di Munno A. ↓, Mora C. ↑,
57', Renelus B. ↓, Orfei A. ↑,
60', 3 - 1, Tunjov G. ⚽,
62', Lanini E. ↓, Donadio C. ↑,
64', Khailoti O. 🟨,
71', Udoh K. ↓, Mastroianni F. ↑,
74', Arboscello R. ↓, Ranieri R. ↑,
74', Alberti T. ↓, Morosini L. ↑,
85', Ferri D. ↓, Citterio G. ↑,
86', D'Alessio L. ↓, Cannavaro A. ↑,
90+4', Morosini L. 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novara won 1.

Recent performances by Novara have been up and down (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Pro Patria has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Novara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Novara is a strong favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Novara won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Novara won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Novara	9	2	3	4	8:12	-4	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
17.01.26	Trento - Novara	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Novara - Dolomiti Bellunesi	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Inter U23 - Novara	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Novara - Ospitaletto	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Cittadella - Novara	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TTTLT
- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
17.01.26	Pro Patria - Giana Erminio	0:4 ✺
10.01.26	Pro Patria - Inter U23	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Pro Vercelli - Pro Patria	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Pro Patria - Renate	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Pro Patria	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
14.09.25	Pro Patria - Novara	0:0
25.01.25	Novara - Pro Patria	2:1
01.10.24	Pro Patria - Novara	1:1
13.01.24	Pro Patria - Novara	3:0
10.09.23	Novara - Pro Patria	1:2
15.03.23	Pro Patria - Novara	1:1
12.11.22	Novara - Pro Patria	1:0

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