Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 29

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Carlo Speroni (Busto Arsizio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255


	Pro Patria		Virtus Verona

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.82	Watch
	2.4	3.17	3.02
	2.3	3.25	2.91	Watch
	2.25	3	2.8
	2.34	3.34	2.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.71)	3.17 ↓ (3.19)	2.89 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pro Patria
39.3%

Draw
29%

Virtus Verona
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

28.8%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

27.4%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pro Patria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pro Patria's performance.

Virtus Verona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Virtus Verona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pro Patria that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Virtus Verona than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Virtus Verona could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pro Patria - Virtus Verona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Sala A. (G) 70. Desogus J. 5. Di Munno A. 31. Felicioli G. 25. Ferri D. 26. Masi A. 39. Motolese M. 11. Renelus B. 6. Sassaro A. 17. Tunjov G. 9. Udoh K.	12. Scardigno N. (G) 21. Ballarini M. 75. Bassi M. 18. Cernigoi I. 6. Daffara M. 5. Fanini F. 30. Gatti C. 95. Munaretti L. 29. Saiani F. 23. Toffanin F. 10. Zarpellon L.
Substitutes
14. Citterio G. 23. Frosali J. 27. Giudici L. 10. Mastroianni F. 20. Mora C. 7. Orfei A. 33. Pogliano C. 21. Ricordi T. 1. Rovida W. (G) 8. Schiavone A. 40. Schiro T. 19. Travaglini C. 22. Zamarian M. (G)	2. Alfonso E. (G) 8. Caia F. 3. Cielo T. 47. Cuel E. 14. Di Virgilio M. 99. Fabbro M. 85. Fiori N. 20. Fiorin G. 74. Lerco S. 39. Mancini T. 44. Pagliuca M. 28. Patane N. 22. Sibi S. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Desogus J. ⚽,
30', Sassaro A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ballarini M. ↓, Caia F. ↑,
46', Renelus B. ↓, Citterio G. ↑,
46', Daffara M. ↓, Pagliuca M. ↑,
58', 2 - 0, Udoh K. ⚽,
61', Motolese M. 🟨,
67', Sassaro A. 🟨,
68', Munaretti L. ↓, Patane N. ↑,
69', Desogus J. ↓, Pogliano C. ↑,
69', Udoh K. ↓, Mastroianni F. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Cernigoi I. ⚽,
75', 2 - 2, Cernigoi I. ⚽,
80', Motolese M. ↓, Mora C. ↑,
81', Mastroianni F. 🟨,
87', Ferri D. ↓, Schiro T. ↑,
88', Fanini F. ↓, Mancini T. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pro Patria won 2.

Pro Patria is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Virtus Verona has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Pro Patria won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Pro Patria won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.4:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Virtus Verona - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 37.23%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
22.02.26	Brescia - Pro Patria	3:2 ✺
15.02.26	Trento - Pro Patria	2:0 ✺
11.02.26	Pro Patria - Cittadella	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	AlbinoLeffe - Pro Patria	2:2 ✺
01.02.26	Pro Patria - Vicenza Virtus	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LLWTL
- Virtus Verona
Italian Serie C Group A
23.02.26	Virtus Verona - Vicenza Virtus	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Lecco - Virtus Verona	2:2 ✺
11.02.26	Brescia - Virtus Verona	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Virtus Verona - Giana Erminio	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Dolomiti Bellunesi - Virtus Verona	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
19.10.25	Virtus Verona - Pro Patria	0:1
30.03.25	Virtus Verona - Pro Patria	0:1
16.11.24	Pro Patria - Virtus Verona	1:1
20.04.24	Pro Patria - Virtus Verona	1:3
17.12.23	Virtus Verona - Pro Patria	2:0
26.02.23	Virtus Verona - Pro Patria	2:0
23.10.22	Pro Patria - Virtus Verona	1:0

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