Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 15

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday

Location: Carlo Speroni (Busto Arsizio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252


	Pro Patria		Pergolettese

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	2.62	2.92	2.72
	2.57	3.00	2.82	Watch
	2.75	3.02	2.68	Watch
	2.8	2.57	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.58)	2.88 ↓ (3.15)	2.81 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pro Patria
34.6%

Draw
32.3%

Pergolettese
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

29.1%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

28.1%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pro Patria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Pergolettese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pergolettese than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Pro Patria - Pergolettese Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Pro Patria will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Pergolettese will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rovida W. (G) 4. Reggiori P. 26. Masi A. 39. Motolese M. 93. Dimarco C. 25. Ferri D. 5. Di Munno A. 14. Citterio G. 27. Giudici L. 11. Renelus B. 10. Mastroianni F.	1. Cordaro L. (G) 27. Aidoo M. 14. Lambrughi A. 26. Bane A. 72. Padalino A. 6. Dore S. 32. Di Gesu E. 4. Arini M. 7. Tomaselli G. 11. Corti N. 10. Ferrandino D.
Substitutes
13. Aliata T. 80. Bagatti N. 56. Ganz S. 12. Gnonto R. (G) 24. Marra A. 7. Orfei A. 21. Ricordi T. 40. Schiro T. 19. Travaglini C. 9. Udoh K. 6. Viti M.	3. Antolini J. 13. Benvenuto M. 22. Doldi F. (G) 80. Jaouhari Z. 40. Lavezzi F. 19. Pala A. 30. Pepa N. 77. Pessolani G. 76. Roversi L. 82. Sartori F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Mastroianni F. ⚽,
45+1', Masi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', Masi A. ↓, Travaglini C. ↑,
55', Padalino A. ↓, Antolini J. ↑,
57', Mastroianni F. 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Corti N. ⚽,
67', Citterio G. ↓, Schiro T. ↑,
67', Renelus B. ↓, Udoh K. ↑,
67', Dimarco C. ↓, Orfei A. ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Di Munno A. ⚽,
73', Aidoo M. ↓, Pessolani G. ↑,
73', Di Gesu E. ↓, Pala A. ↑,
80', 🟨,
81', 3 - 1, Mastroianni F. (Pen),
84', Mastroianni F. ↓, Mora C. ↑,
85', Ferri D. 🟨,
90+2', Tomaselli G. ↓, Pepa N. ↑,
90+2', Ferrandino D. ↓, Jaouhari Z. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pro Patria won 3.

In recent matches, Pro Patria has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pergolettese has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Pro Patria won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pro Patria won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Pro Patria - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.47%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
16.11.25	Lecco - Pro Patria	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Pro Patria - Lumezzane	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Alcione - Pro Patria	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Pro Patria - Ospitaletto	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Virtus Verona - Pro Patria	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTLTW
- US Pergolettese
Italian Serie C Group A
17.11.25	Pergolettese - Giana Erminio	0:3 ✺
08.11.25	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Pergolettese	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Pergolettese - Novara	2:2 ✺
26.10.25	Pro Vercelli - Pergolettese	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Triestina - Pergolettese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
25.04.25	Pergolettese - Pro Patria	2:1
15.12.24	Pro Patria - Pergolettese	1:1
Coppa Italia Serie C
11.08.24	Pro Patria - Pergolettese	1:0
Italian Serie C Group A
10.02.24	Pro Patria - Pergolettese	2:0
29.09.23	Pergolettese - Pro Patria	0:1
18.02.23	Pro Patria - Pergolettese	1:2
19.10.22	Pergolettese - Pro Patria	3:2

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