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Current Win Probability
Progreso 7.3%
Draw 18.2%
Peñarol de Montevideo 74.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
14.1%
23.2%
62.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
13.5%
22.2%
65.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Progreso's form might have worsened.
Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Peñarol de Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+6.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Progreso, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
33.3%
66.7%
Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Mehring A. (G) 15. Martin M. 3. Garcia F. 13. Carroso H. 14. Kidd F. 8. Colombino A. (C) 17. De Leon F. 24. Viera S. 5. Pinheiro A. 22. Paz A. 23. Copelotti M.
1. Britos S. (G) 2. Escobar F. 6. Ferreira L. 15. Olivera M. (C) 21. Jesus Trindade 5. Remedi E. 8. Fernandez N. 77. Angulo L. 10. Fernandez L. 23. Togni G. 19. Arezo M.
Substitutes
6. Andueza F. 30. Codagnone A. 25. Dos Santos J. 29. Fernandez N. 11. Lopez N. 4. Paolini M. 33. Requena A. (G) 93. Sanchez D. 19. Silva J. 16. Trasante G.
29. Aguerre W. (G) 28. Alegre I. 18. Barbas G. 9. Batista F. 80. Gonzalez F. 25. Gonzalez M. 11. Hernandez A. 26. Madruga A. 30. Muhlethaler S. 14. Rodriguez K.
Coaches
Rocco L.
Aguirre D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
24', 0 - 1, Angulo L. ⚽,
31', Copelotti M. 🟨,
33', Fernandez L. 🟨,
39', 0 - 2, Angulo L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Viera S. ↓, Andueza F. ↑,
46', Paz A. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
46', Martin M. ↓, Trasante G. ↑,
58', Colombino A. ↓, Codagnone A. ↑,
65', Escobar F. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
65', Angulo L. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
72', Togni G. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
72', Arezo M. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
72', Copelotti M. ↓, Dos Santos J. ↑,
86', Remedi E. 🟨,
90+3', Ferreira L. 🟨,
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 2).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 0.
Progreso has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Peñarol is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
In this match, Peñarol is the obvious favorite.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 13:32. (average 0.8:1.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:20. (average 0.8:2).
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
Watch
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Mehring A. (G) 
Martin M. 
Angulo L. 
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