Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 31 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo)

Referee: Gonzalez L. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Progreso		Liverpool Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.1	1.95	Watch
	3.55	3.15	2.02
	4.02	3.35	2.02
	3.84	3.32	1.99	Watch
	3.4	3.2	2.05
	3.88	3.28	1.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.72 ↑ (3.64)	3.23 ↑ (3.22)	2 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progreso
25%

Draw
28.7%

Liverpool Montevideo
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

28.7%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

27.7%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Liverpool Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Progreso will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Liverpool will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Liverpool: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Progreso (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mehring A. (G) 15. Martin M. 3. Garcia F. 13. Carroso H. 40. Cougo A. 8. Colombino A. 24. Viera S. 29. Fernandez N. 17. De Leon F. 22. Paz A. 23. Copelotti M.	25. Campana M. (G) 24. Amaro K. 3. Strasorier S. 23. Castillo E. 27. Romero D. 20. Rabunal M. (C) 17. de Mello G. 7. Martinez F. 31. Barcelo F. 22. Zabala D. 11. Bentancourt R.
Substitutes
30. Codagnone A. 7. Fernandez F. 14. Kidd F. 10. Lemmo I. 11. Lopez N. 4. Paolini M. 33. Requena A. (G) 93. Sanchez D. 18. Silva G. 16. Trasante G.	16. Acosta L. 1. Bernatene M. (G) 18. Cayetano A. 10. Degregorio R. M. 5. Garayalde N. 15. Laquidain S. 34. Lewis K. 9. Machado R. 29. Olivera E. 4. Perdomo F.
Coaches
Rocco L.	Speranza C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Bentancourt R. ⚽,
10', 0 - 2, Martinez F. ⚽,
13', Barcelo F. 🟨,
21', 1 - 2, Copelotti M. (Penalty Awarded),
25', Cougo A. ↓, Kidd F. ↑,
32', Paz A. 🟨,
41', 2 - 2, Copelotti M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Martin M. 🟨,
58', Fernandez N. 🟨,
68', 2 - 3, Martinez F. ⚽,
69', Zabala D. ↓, Perdomo F. ↑,
69', de Mello G. ↓, Garayalde N. ↑,
70', Martin M. ↓, Trasante G. ↑,
70', Garcia F. ↓, Paolini M. ↑,
70', Copelotti M. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
75', 3 - 3, Carroso H. ⚽,
78', Fernandez N. ↓, Codagnone A. ↑,
79', Barcelo F. ↓, Machado R. ↑,
79', Amaro K. ↓, Degregorio R. M. ↑,
87', Bentancourt R. 🟨,
90+2', Garayalde N. 🟨,
90+6', Castillo E. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Progreso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Liverpool might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:29. (average 1.2:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:16. (average 0.9:2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Progreso - Boston River	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Cerro - Progreso	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Progreso - Albion Montevideo	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Danubio - Progreso	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 TLWTT
- Liverpool Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Central Español	3:3 ✺
21.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:0 ✺
16.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	0:0 ✺
09.03.26	Boston River - Liverpool Montevideo	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
26.10.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Progreso	3:1
27.04.25	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	0:2
03.11.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Progreso	2:1
28.04.24	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1
03.10.21	Liverpool Montevideo - Progreso	0:1
04.06.21	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	1:3
30.01.21	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	0:4

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