Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Park Hall (Oswestry)

Referee: Spasjonnikovs V. (Lat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Estonia	Soccernet TV
Germany	Laola1
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport, S4C Clic, S4C
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	The New Saints		Flora Tallinn

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.8	3.5	Watch
	1.95	3.50	3.40
	1.78	3.55	3.95	Watch
	1.76	3.78	4.18
	1.95	3.77	3.5	Watch
	1.73	3.65	4.1
	1.86	4.04	3.72	Watch
	1.83	3.7	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.81)	3.72 ↓ (3.73)	3.77 ↓ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

The New Saints
50.6%

Draw
24.8%

Flora Tallinn
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

25.2%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

26.4%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The New Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Flora Tallinn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for The New Saints than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flora Tallinn than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	15%	10%

The New Saints - Flora Tallinn Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. TNS will win (votes: 15 - 75%). Flora will win (votes: 2 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for TNS: 56% – 94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. TNS (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shepperd N. (G) 22. Davies D. 16. Simeu D. 6. Bodenham J. 10. Redmond D. (C) 15. Farrell E. 14. Williams D. 21. Smith L. 18. Holden R. 17. Williams J. 20. Hughes R.	33. Grunvald E. (G) 26. Tovstik S. 23. Kolobov M. 3. Kollo A. 7. Kuraksin D. 14. Varjund T. 32. Kreida V. 18. Valdmets R. 20. Zenjov S. 11. Sappinen R. (C) 29. Alamaa S.
Substitutes
7. Barton D. 8. Brobbel R. 19. Clark B. 4. Corness D. 30. Edwards J. (G) 12. Godsmark-Ford H. 37. Jefferies I. 34. Lock J. 23. Nolan Z. 26. Phillips L. 28. Wilson B. 31. Woollam B.	9. Alliku R. 67. Antonov I. 89. Kalimullin M. 99. Kivila K. (G) 51. Kukkonen M. 24. Pihela O. 53. Sammul R. 22. Tatrik A. (G) 8. Teevali T. 17. Usta T. 6. Veering R.
Coaches
Harrison C.	Vasiliev K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Williams J. 🟨,
20', Tovstik S. ↓, Antonov I. ↑,
41', Antonov I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Hughes R. 🟨,
66', Holden R. ↓, Brobbel R. ↑,
66', Smith L. ↓, Jefferies I. ↑,
66', Alamaa S. ↓, Alliku R. ↑,
80', Kuraksin D. ↓, Veering R. ↑,
80', Kreida V. ↓, Teevali T. ↑,
81', Williams J. ↓, Wilson B. ↑,
81', Farrell E. ↓, Clark B. ↑,
86', Williams D. 🟨,
87', Hughes R. ↓, Lock J. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 0, Wilson B. ⚽, Bodenham J. (A),
Extra Time (0 - 0)
92', Zenjov S. 🟨,
97', Redmond D. 🟨,
102', Simeu D. 🟨,
106', Redmond D. ↓, Nolan Z. ↑,
106', Sappinen R. ↓, Usta T. ↑,
110', Zenjov S. ↓, Kalimullin M. ↑,
120+1', Davies D. 🟨,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Teevali T. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Wilson B. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Alliku R. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Brobbel R. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Varjund T. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Lock J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Kalimullin M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Williams D. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Usta T. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 0-1.

Recent form of TNS has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Flora's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

TNS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, TNS has had a series of away games.

In this match, TNS is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, TNS won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- The New Saints
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Flora Tallinn - The New Saints	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	The New Saints - Sabah	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Sabah - The New Saints	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.06.26	Harland & Wolff Welders - The New Saints	1:2 ✺
24.06.26	Glentoran - The New Saints	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLLWT
- Flora Tallinn
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Flora Tallinn - The New Saints	1:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
17.07.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	Iberia 1999 - Flora Tallinn	2:2 ✺
08.07.26	Flora Tallinn - Iberia 1999	2:3 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
02.07.26	Kuressaare - Flora Tallinn	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Flora Tallinn - The New Saints	1:0

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