Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 4

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Banorte (Mexico City)

Referee: Perez S. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Disney+, ESPN
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Atlante		Toluca

	1	X	2
	5.50	3.80	1.61
	5.00	4.10	1.58
	5.50	4.20	1.50
	5.46	4.19	1.64
	5.43	4.33	1.57	Watch
	5.50	4.35	1.56
	5.55	3.83	1.66	Watch
	5.00	4.10	1.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.37 ↓ (6.05)	4.11 ↓ (4.29)	1.59 ↑ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlante
17.6%

Draw
23%

Toluca
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.4%

21.7%

63%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.8%

20.9%

65.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlante than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toluca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Atlante - Toluca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jimenez O. (G) 29. Portales W. 6. Carrera J. N. (C) 4. Tercero E. 44. Quiros A. 34. Jimenez E. 8. Pizzuto E. 10. Vazquez O. 19. Calzadilla L. 9. Puente L. 7. Jhojan Julio	22. Garcia L. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 25. del Villar E. 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 6. Pereira F. (C) 10. Angulo J. 5. Romero F. 35. Gutierrez E. 29. Diaz Price J. 16. Vinas F.
Substitutes
14. Alfaro C. 32. Bagui Tobar D. O. 37. Clar W. 33. Garcia Jordan (G) 13. Garcia Pardo M. 16. Gonzalez D. 21. Ibarra J. 30. Martin Sarrafiore 11. Moxica J. 3. Sanchez L.	184. Aceves S. 24. Arce F. 3. Briseno A. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 7. Guzman V. 11. Helinho 13. Luan 192. Navarrete L. 15. Perez P. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Herrera M.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Quiros A. 🟨,
29', Jimenez E. ↓, Clar W. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Vazquez O. ↓, Martin Sarrafiore ↑,
60', Angulo J. ↓, Helinho ↑,
60', Barbosa D. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
74', Gutierrez E. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
75', Garcia L. ↓, Gonzalez H. ↑,
80', Puente L. ↓, Moxica J. ↑,
82', Diaz Price J. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
90+9', Carrera J. N. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlante won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atlante has had a series of away games.

Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.

In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.

There will not play in Toluca: Ruiz M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Atlante won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 9:23. (average 0.9:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlante won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.6:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25:15	10	20
15	Atlante	11	2	5	4	12:17	-5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlante FC
CONCACAF League Cup
11.08.26	Minnesota United - Atlante	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	Real Salt Lake - Atlante	4:0 ✺
04.08.26	Vancouver Whitecaps - Atlante	0:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
01.08.26	Cruz Azul - Atlante	2:3 ✺
24.07.26	Atlante - Club América	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.9 LLWWT
- Deportivo Toluca
CONCACAF League Cup
12.08.26	Toluca - FC Dallas	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	Toluca - Los Angeles	0:1 ✺
05.08.26	Toluca - Seattle Sounders	3:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
02.08.26	Toluca - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
Mexican Campeon de Campeones
25.07.26	Toluca - Cruz Azul	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Mexico
24.10.17	Toluca - Atlante	1:2 penalties
17.02.15	Atlante - Toluca	1:1
03.02.15	Toluca - Atlante	3:1
26.08.14	Atlante - Toluca	0:3
19.08.14	Toluca - Atlante	3:2
Mexican Liga MX
23.03.14	Atlante - Toluca	2:1
29.09.13	Toluca - Atlante	7:1

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