Match Info

Leagues Cup

Date: 12 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Imagen Television
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Apple TV International


	Toluca		FC Dallas

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.75	6.5	Watch
	1.34	4.80	6.50
	1.39	5	6.5
	1.41	5.15	7.25
	1.43	5	6.6	Watch
	1.4	4.95	7.15
	1.47	4.77	6.16	Watch
	1.4	5.2	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.64)	4.95 ↑ (4.65)	6.66 ↑ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Toluca
66.8%

Draw
19%

FC Dallas
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

20.1%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

21%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.

FC Dallas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and FC Dallas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FC Dallas than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FC Dallas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	18.7%	6.2%

Toluca - FC Dallas Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Dallas will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Garcia L. (G) 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 6. Pereira F. 4. Bruno Mendez 20. Gallardo J. 11. Helinho 5. Romero F. 35. Gutierrez E. 9. Vega A. (C) 16. Vinas F. 29. Diaz Price J.	40. Sirois J. (G) 14. Johansson H. 3. Urhoghide O. 18. Moore S. 32. Norris N. 77. Kamungo B. 23. Farrington L. 17. Ramiro (C) 55. Kaick 21. Valiente J. 9. Musa P.
Substitutes
10. Angulo J. 24. Arce F. 2. Barbosa D. 12. Beltran R. (G) 3. Briseno A. 25. del Villar E. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 7. Guzman V. 13. Luan 15. Perez P. 19. Simon S. 23. Virgen O.	5. Abubakar L. 22. Alvaro Augusto 6. Binyamin R. 12. Cappis C. 30. Collodi M. (G) 33. Holstad C. 25. Ibeagha S. 10. Moreno S. 28. Sarver S. 16. Simmonds N. 27. Swann C.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Quill E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Vega A. (Penalty Awarded),
9', 1 - 1, Musa P. ⚽, Kaick (A),
17', Ramiro 🟨,
33', Pereira F. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 1, Vinas F. ⚽, Helinho (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 3 - 1, Gutierrez E. ⚽, Gallardo J. (A),
62', Johansson H. ↓, Sarver S. ↑,
62', Ramiro ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
62', Musa P. ↓, Cappis C. ↑,
66', Diaz Price J. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
71', Valiente J. ↓, Binyamin R. ↑,
78', Urhoghide O. 🟨,
79', Binyamin R. 🟨,
80', Vinas F. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
80', Gutierrez E. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
81', Farrington L. ↓, Simmonds N. ↑,
88', Helinho ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
88', Vega A. ↓, del Villar E. ↑,
90+1', Sarver S. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.

Recently, Dallas has had a series of away games.

In this match, Toluca is the obvious favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
CONCACAF League Cup
08.08.26	Toluca - Los Angeles	0:1 ✺
05.08.26	Toluca - Seattle Sounders	3:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
02.08.26	Toluca - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
Mexican Campeon de Campeones
25.07.26	Toluca - Cruz Azul	1:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
21.07.26	Toluca - UNAM	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWWLL
- FC Dallas
CONCACAF League Cup
08.08.26	Chivas Guadalajara - FC Dallas	0:1 ✺
05.08.26	FC Dallas - Querétaro	2:0 ✺
MLS
01.08.26	Los Angeles Galaxy - FC Dallas	0:0 ✺
25.07.26	San Diego - FC Dallas	1:0 ✺
22.07.26	Portland Timbers - FC Dallas	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWTLT

Upcoming Matches