Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 12

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes (Quilmes)


	Quilmes		Chacarita Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.75	3.8	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.75
	2.2	2.72	3.65	Watch
	2.36	2.75	3.9
	2.27	2.79	3.79	Watch
	2.3	2.63	3.5
	2.18	2.71	3.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.11)	2.75 ↓ (2.8)	3.73 ↓ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Quilmes
41.5%

Draw
33.7%

Chacarita Juniors
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

32.6%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

31.9%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Quilmes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Chacarita Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chacarita Juniors than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Quilmes - Chacarita Juniors Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Canadell J. (G) 4. Vallejos M. 2. Kippes A. 6. Rasso I. 3. Ortega T. 8. Martinez R. 5. Bolivar A. 10. Batista A. 11. Vera U. 7. Lavezzi A. 9. Dominguez A.	1. Bologna E. (G) 4. Facello F. 2. Velazquez J. (C) 6. Mottes G. 3. Calderara B. 7. Melendez M. 5. Mellado M. 8. Perez T. 10. Cuevas J. 9. Cabral F. 11. Sanabria M.
Substitutes
19. Barreto J. 14. Bindella A. 18. Fernandez M. 17. Mejias T. 15. Ortega A. 13. Recalde L. 12. Rodriguez M. 20. Spetale A. 16. Yangali J.	20. Barbieri J. 17. Brun L. 18. Bustos L. 16. Chaves N. 19. Cristaldo F. 14. Leyendeker M. 12. Losas F. (G) 13. Pantaleone N. 15. Perdomo L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Vera U. 🟨,
34', Melendez M. 🟨,
45', Velazquez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Sanabria M. 🟨,
58', Cabral F. ↓, Barbieri J. ↑,
59', Vera U. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
65', Mellado M. ↓, Bustos L. ↑,
65', Cuevas J. ↓, Brun L. ↑,
65', Sanabria M. ↓, Chaves N. ↑,
74', Calderara B. ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
74', Lavezzi A. ↓, Barreto J. ↑,
74', Dominguez A. ↓, Spetale A. ↑,
74', Martinez R. ↓, Mejias T. ↑,
90', Facello F. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Quilmes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Quilmes will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:11. (average 2.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Quilmes won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Quilmes - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 43.24%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
25.04.26	San Martín de San Juan - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Quilmes - Nueva Chicago	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Temperley - Quilmes	3:3 ✺
05.04.26	Quilmes - Deportivo Maipú	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	San Telmo - Quilmes	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTTWW
- Chacarita Juniors
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.26	Chacarita Juniors - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
20.04.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Chacarita Juniors	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Chacarita Juniors - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Chacarita Juniors	1:1 ✺
29.03.26	Chacarita Juniors - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
13.07.24	Chacarita Juniors - Quilmes	0:4
25.02.24	Quilmes - Chacarita Juniors	1:0
23.09.23	Chacarita Juniors - Quilmes	2:2
13.05.23	Quilmes - Chacarita Juniors	1:1
23.04.22	Chacarita Juniors - Quilmes	2:2
17.10.21	Chacarita Juniors - Quilmes	1:3
22.06.21	Quilmes - Chacarita Juniors	3:1

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