Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 30

Date: 17 September 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes (Quilmes)

Referee: Delbarba J. (Arg)


	Quilmes		Mitre

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.3	5.75	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.75	Watch
	1.73	3.54	5.31
	1.7	3.2	5
	1.72	3.5	5.25
	1.73	3.3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.92)	3.36 ↑ (3.02)	5.18 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Quilmes
54.1%

Draw
27.8%

Mitre
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

30.2%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

29.5%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Quilmes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Quilmes's performance.

Mitre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Quilmes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mitre than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Quilmes - Mitre Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Quilmes will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Mitre will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alvarez M. (G) 4. Tevez F. 2. Diaz G. 6. Lopez M. 3. Bindella A. 8. Rio M. 5. Ramirez I. 10. Colman I. 11. Bonetto J. 7. Sanabria M. 9. Anselmo F.	1. Bustos B. (G) 4. Diaz C. 2. Tapia R. 6. Melillan F. 3. Sanchez M. 7. Ferrari M. 5. Alessandroni J. 8. Diaz G. 11. Juarez F. 9. Romero N. 10. Rosales S.
Substitutes
. Ayala W. . Batista A. . Brizuela E. . Calello A. . Capano J. . Castro F. . Glellel E. (G) . Postigo J. . Torres L.	18. Bustamante F. 16. Franco E. 20. Galvan F. 19. Gimenez M. 17. Gonzalez D. 12. Larrea K. (G) 14. Mieres B. 15. Ramirez G. 13. Soto G.
Coaches
Fuscaldo A.	Grelak A.

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Quilmes won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Mitre could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Quilmes is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Quilmes won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Quilmes won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.09.23	Chaco For Ever - Quilmes	0:4 ✺
02.09.23	Quilmes - Independiente Rivadavia	0:1 ✺
27.08.23	Deportivo Maipú - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
19.08.23	Quilmes - Villa Dálmine	2:0 ✺
05.08.23	Deportivo Madryn - Quilmes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLWT
- CA Mitre
Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.09.23	Mitre - Gimnasia Jujuy	1:1 ✺
04.09.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Mitre	3:0 ✺
27.08.23	Mitre - Deportivo Riestra	1:1 ✺
20.08.23	Racing de Córdoba - Mitre	4:2 ✺
06.08.23	Mitre - Atlanta Buenos Aires	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
07.05.23	Mitre - Quilmes	1:0
06.03.22	Mitre - Quilmes	1:3
03.10.21	Mitre - Quilmes	4:0
21.05.21	Quilmes - Mitre	2:1
10.02.19	Mitre - Quilmes	1:1
01.04.18	Mitre - Quilmes	1:1

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